Sound Smart: 5 Observations Ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft

You know that Fernando Mendoza is going first overall. You know that at No. 2, the New York Jets are deciding between Texas Tech edge David Bailey and Ohio State edge Arvell Reese. And you know that the bona fide superstars in this draft — running back Jeremiyah Love, safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles — do not play premium positions. That’s what we’re seeing and hearing at the surface level. But this is “Sound Smart,” where I try to spin forward, dive deeper and think outside the box. If I do my job, you’ll have a better understanding of what to expect ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. 1. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY The Bengals won their trade for DT Dexter Lawrence. Period. At first glance, no one seemed to like the Dexter Lawrence trade for the Cincinnati Bengals. (I did, to be clear. But basically no one else liked it.) It was “a steal” for New York — supposedly. A Top 10 pick! For Dexter Lawrence? A 28-year-old DT? Why? How?! It’s actually really simple. Lawrence was a better player than whatever rookie the Bengals were going to get at 10th overall, even taking into account the financials, the age and the long-term planning. Would you rather have Dexter Lawrence or Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson? Would you rather have Dexter Lawrence or LSU corner Mansoor Delane? Lawrence or Miami tackle Francis Mauigoa? A top 10 pick sounds great. The reality of this year’s No. 10 is … not so great — unless maybe Ohio State safety Caleb Downs dropped that far. In this era of information, there are rare moments where we overthink a single transaction. But there are outliers that buck the greater trends, and I see clearly why the Bengals thought this was a win for their organization. Cincinnati is a team that needs to get better in a hurry. The job security for coach Zac Taylor isn’t so much my concern. It’s all about the Bengals’ relationship with veteran QB Joe Burrow. Listen to the way he sounded disenchanted with the game last year. He sounded like he could retire — or like he’d consider pulling a Matthew Stafford and demanding a trade. Cincy could lose Burrow as early as 2027. In December, I called this the most important offseason ever for the Bengals. This is not a drill, folks. This is one of the biggest issues an organization can face. The Bengals needed to address the issue. They’re starting to act like it, adding Lawrence to such offseason additions as edge Boye Mafe, safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. I can see why — to some — that might make this move sound desperate. Or illogical. It’s neither. This 2026 draft isn’t very impressive at the top. There will be places on Day 2 when teams will get a third-round-graded player in the third round. Otherwise, I bet most teams will feel like they’re reaching, especially in Round 1. Some teams have fewer than 10 players with a first-round grade. It’s possible the Bengals are one of those teams. Which would lend more credibility to the idea that Lawrence was worth it. It’s a part of a bigger trend: an offseason where premium players have been especially scarce. Because the draft was so weak, teams didn’t let their free agents get to the open market. (There were, for example, virtually no good defensive tackles on the open market with the best free agent option being 39-year-old Calais Campbell, who is actually still available, though not especially enticing). Because the draft is so weak and free agency looked thin, teams got more aggressive in acquiring veterans in the trade market — like cornerback Trent McDuffie, edge Maxx Crosby and receiver DJ Moore. (And I know that the Crosby deal with Baltimore fell apart, but that happened, in part, because Trey Hendrickson presented a rare value that the Ravens didn’t seem to initially anticipate. They probably didn’t anticipate his availability because of the trends I’m mentioning.) When it comes to the Lawrence deal, the Bengals managed to secure him through 2028 — and without breaking the bank. It’s basically a three-year, $70-million contract after Cincinnati gave him a $28-million, one-year extension. That puts Lawrence on par with Quinnen Williams, Jeffery Simmons and DeForest Buckner in terms of average annual value. I suspect that’s a deal the Giants would gladly accept — but were not given the option to, because of a relationship that deteriorated. They’re now looking at a defense which, this season, will have to defend running backs such as Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs, among others. It’s suddenly a ground-game league. And the Giants’ defense looks like it’s in danger of turning into ground meat next season without Lawrence. New York will probably draft inside linebacker Sonny Styles at fifth overall to help offset Lawrence’s departure. (At No. 10, it looks like maybe the Giants will take an offensive player, like ASU receiver Tyson.) But as terrific as Styles is, he’d be a whole lot better if he was playing behind Lawrence. The Bengals are a team in dire need of impact players. They didn’t see one falling into their lap on defense at 10th overall. So they moved that pick for a proven entity. If it works out, they might cure Burrow’s melancholia and keep him with the organization. Finally, it feels like the Bengals are taking action. 2. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW It’s OK to be thinking ahead to Arch Manning and the 2027 NFL Draft. Everyone else is. At the NFL Combine in February, a pair of NFL agents sat discussing the 2026 draft at a Starbucks near the convention center in Indianapolis. But the more they discussed this year’s class, the more they talked about next year’s class. Texas QB Arch Manning. Oregon QB Dante Moore. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin. South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers. LSU QB Sam Leavitt. That’s what 2027 might have to offer. There’s a lot of talent to get excited about — next year. There are enthusiasts who love this year’s presumed No. 1 pick, Fernando Mendoza, including — of course — the folks in Las Vegas. He is a very good prospect. After him, however, the quarterback class looks starkly undertalented and/or underdeveloped. After Mendoza, there’s a real lack of star potential at the top of the first round at just about every premium position. Quarterbacks Ty Simpson (Alabama) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) are compelling players, and they’re almost definitely going to be the QB2 and QB3 of this year’s class. Cole Payton (North Dakota State) figures to present strong value as a mid-round developmental prospect. But it’s a good thing these QBs came out this year, because they almost certainly wouldn’t rank as favorably in next year’s class. Arch Manning, for example, would’ve probably been the No. 1 overall pick this year. Dante Moore might’ve also pushed Mendoza for QB1, if the Oregon prospect had entered the draft. It seems highly likely that Simpson will land in Round 1 — but in a place where he won’t have to see the field in 2026. Even his father, Jason Simpson, told me that Ty wasn’t like Mendoza, who was interviewing for jobs in 2026. Simpson was interviewing for a starting job in 2027. Around the league, we have seen a few teams treading water at quarterback, most notably the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns. It’s not paradise in the quarterback rooms for the Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers or New York Jets. Yet there is less urgency around the quarterback position this year than normal. And I think that’s because everyone is thinking about next year’s prizes. There’s an obvious risk, because this draft class was supposed to be better than it turned out to be. The highly-anticipated quarterbacks might return to the safety of NIL paychecks, which are — in some cases — higher than what a player might make in the NFL. Even considering all that, it’s almost a total certainty that next year’s group will be better than this year’s group. And so the 2027 draft class is looming — and to some degree lording — over the 2026 draft. 3. SHARING A NOT-SO-DIRTY DRAFT SECRET Is there a pattern around prospects who turn into busts? Chiefs GM Brett Veach thinks he’s found one. Why do some great prospects fail to pan out? If only NFL general managers knew for sure. And for executives who only get a few years in their decision-making chair, it’s even harder to get a sense of whether there’s even a pattern. That’s why Chiefs general manager Brett Veach’s answer to a question at his pre-draft press conference last week struck me as so interesting. This is Veach’s 10th year in his role. During that time, the Chiefs have hit on guys all over the roster, from QB Patrick Mahomes to center Creed Humphrey to defensive tackle Chris Jones to cornerback Trent McDuffie. They’ve also missed on some players, from running back Clyde Helaire-Edwards to receiver Skyy Moore to defensive end Breeland Speaks. But more often than not, the Chiefs have hit in the top three rounds, which is a major reason why they have made so many Super Bowls. But last season, we saw that while Mahomes can do a whole lot — he can’t do it all. “If you miss on a player, it’s probably the character and the love for football,” Veach said. “We all get enamored by what a player can do, and I think everyone has an element of, ‘Well, if he’s in our environment, it’ll be different.’ We do have a great environment here. If anyone’s going to get the best out of any player, it’s going to be here. But even [with] some of those players, it’s hard.” It’s one of the biggest clichés of the draft process — these discussions of character and love for the game. But that’s in part because it’s not quantifiable and in part because it comes off as coachspeak. There’s no easy measurement for either — or for how things might change once a player arrives in the NFL. But the more you speak with evaluators, the more you know that every prospect requires development. And you can’t help a guy who can’t help himself. “No one’s going to be perfect, and you’re not always going to get Pat Mahomes and Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith in regards to mental makeup,” Veach said. “The guys that you do roll the dice for, [you] plan the approach … and just work on that over the years. Again, I go back to the mistakes you make are guys that at the end of the day, they just don’t love football. Even though you thought you were going to change them, you didn’t. “We’ve tried to do better with that process, identifying those things and making sure that we’re looking for the right traits and characteristics that do lend itself to future change.” 4. WHAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AFRAID TO SAY Hey Cowboys, stay the course. Dallas is putting together a solid defense. Maybe it’s not a spectacular one, but it’s a really good one. The Cowboys have taken the patient approach of spreading money around the defense — rather than investing in one unit with an unnecessary sense of urgency. This is the Micah Parsons effect, where they’ve sacrificed one elite pass-rusher in the name of having elite offensive playmakers and a well-rounded defense. Don’t lose sight of the plan, Dallas. “I’ve looked at that mirror a lot, about how to go up and down and trade and do those kinds of things,” owner Jerry Jones said in a press conference at the owners meetings in March. “And absolutely, we’ll entertain improving or an in-draft read on what gives us a better chance to get another player, and still have our pick and the red meat of top players. … With the kind of assets or the kind of ammunition we’ve got in this draft, you should look at all machinations.” There’s a growing sentiment that Dallas wants to trade up for Sonny Styles or Arvell Reese. Maybe into the top five picks. I can’t get behind either concept. It would derail what appeared to be the Cowboys’ strategy around the Parsons trade. From this draft, Reese is most like Parsons — but given how little playing time Reese got in his edge role at Ohio State, he’s a legitimately risky play for an investment that would likely require two first-round picks. The film is excellent, but there’s not that much of it. It’s an easier sell for Styles, who is (in my opinion) one of two clear-cut instant Pro Bowlers alongside Jeremiyah Love. But trading up for Styles is comparable to the plot of Draft Day — giving up multiple first-round picks to get a linebacker. It’s the most ridiculous plot point of the movie and that’s saying something. I don’t like the Cowboys doing it in real life. So here’s hoping if the Cowboys do move up, they don’t worry about getting into the top five picks. They jump up a few spots, if necessary, to snag Miami edge Rueben Bain or Caleb Downs … or even Styles, if he slips to seventh or eighth. But the whole idea was to use the Parsons trade as an opportunity to bring depth and balance to the defense. Don’t abandon that whole idea. Make sure you come away from the 2026 draft with two first-round picks. Make sure you preserve your first-rounders in the 2027 draft. For the love of all things good in the world, don’t write “Sonny Styles No Matter What” on a Post-it. 5. PEELING BACK THE CURTAIN The draft process has been complicated for Rueben Bain. The draft process is long, invasive and comprehensive. Just a month ago, Caleb Downs told me that he didn’t feel like the months leading up to the draft were one big interview because NFL teams are “doing background checks on your childhood stuff, so at this point, your whole life is sort of a job interview.” That’s why NFL teams knew about Rueben Bain’s car accident long before the public did. In March 2024, Bain rear-ended another vehicle, per a police report published on The Read Optional. Three of the four passengers were not wearing seat belts and 22-year-old Destiny Betts sustained injuries severe enough to put her in a coma. She died in June 2024. “We’ve known about it since last summer,” one scout told me regarding the accident. “I still think he goes in the top 10. Again, everyone has known about this in the NFL.” I sat down with Bain last month in Portland at the Adidas “Pro Day” — just after the NFL Combine — to talk about the pre-draft process. At the time, I didn’t know about the accident, which is important context for the interview. I asked him how his meetings with teams went. And he told me what it was like speaking with the Jets, who were his first interview at the combine and are picking at Nos. 2 and 16 in the draft on Thursday night. “It definitely was nerve-wracking,” Bain told me. “That first meeting, walking up to my first meeting, my heart was pounding — like literally beating on my chest. But once I sat down and got in the swing of things, I was actually just being myself, talking, being confident in my knowledge of the game.” One NFL scout confirmed that his team — and likely every team — checked in about the accident. So in all likelihood, Bain answered some hard questions from the Jets. Chiefs GM Brett Veach said his scouting staff spoke with Bain about it. The strange reality, in hindsight, was that Bain was one of the combine’s biggest talking points for different reasons. The discussion centered around his arm length (30⅞ inches), tied for the fourth-shortest for a defensive end since 1999. “I don’t really think about it,” he told me. “I don’t give no energy to it.” Bain looked back on his time at the combine with fondness. “I could’ve stayed in Indianapolis forever if we kept doing what we was doing,” he told me. “Everybody there was kind of complaining about it, dragging about it. But for me, my first two days was super fun, just talking football, interviewing with teams, stuff like that. Then the next three, four days, just watching guys compete, getting out there, seeing the whole experience of the combine.”