2026 NFL Draft Confidential: Unfiltered Scouting Takes On Top 5 QBs

This is not a good time for NFL teams in need of a franchise quarterback. The 2026 draft class is thin. Scouts are mostly unimpressed. And some are already counting the days until the 2027 draft when a half-dozen QBs could end up with first-round grades. For teams that need help now, though, the cupboard isn’t completely bare. There are good quarterbacks in this class if teams look hard enough. You can expect that a number of clubs will, given that at least a handful of them are still searching for a long-term answer at QB. The 2026 prospects just might need a little extra time, patience and care. “There are 3-4 guys in this class that I think will have good NFL careers,” one scout told me. “Do I think any of them will be great? No. They’re not ‘can’t-miss’ (prospects). But there’s talent there if you know what to do with it.” So, who are the quarterbacks who could be “good”? I talked to seven scouts to get their insights on the five best in the class — what they like about them, what they need to work on and where they might end up. 5. Drew Allar, Penn State Expectations were high for Allar heading into the 2025 season, but he struggled early and then broke his left ankle in mid-October. It made for a disappointing end to a weird college career that never really rose to the heights many anticipated for a guy with such obvious physical tools. He was good as a junior (3,327 yards, 24 touchdowns, 8 interceptions in 16 games), but regressed as a senior (1,100 yards, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions in six games). The injury only complicated his outlook. He finished with 26 starts in college. Draft range: Round 3-4. “If a quarterback with his size is still sitting there when Day 3 starts, someone is going to jump up (to trade for him),” one scout told me. Height/weight: 6-foot-5, 228 pounds Scout takes: “My overall evaluation is that he’s good, but probably should have been better. He’s got great size and I love his arm (strength). His mobility is good. His accuracy is good, but inconsistent. There’s obviously a lot to work with there, but he was up and down his entire college career. … He was regressing as a senior before the injury. That’s a big red flag, especially after his interceptions jumped (as a junior) when they opened the playbook for him. But a guy that big who can throw like that? A lot of teams are going to want a piece of that. … If his career was a straight line, he might be a first-rounder based on talent and potential. But he was so all over the place. And it was easy to forget about him after the injury.” Pro comp: Josh Allen, Joe Flacco. “Same general scouting report as those guys (coming out of college): Big body, big arm, but an erratic arm,” one scout told me. “If he figures it out, he’s got Pro Bowl upside. If he doesn’t, he’s Drew Lock.” Biggest strength: Size. Every scout I spoke with raved about his size and strength, and great size can really matter for an NFL quarterback. “If you get a guy that big who can really play, you are set for a very long time,” one scout told me. Biggest question mark: Accuracy, or lack of it. He completed just 59.9% of his passes in his breakout sophomore year. That jumped to 66.5% as a junior, but so did his interceptions (from 2 to 8). Then, as a senior, his completion percentage dipped to 64.8%, and he was picked off three times in his six games. “It was all over the place,” one scout told me. “That’s worrisome since the sample size was big.” Best fit: Los Angeles Rams. “They’re so loaded they can afford to take a shot on him on Day 2,” one scout told me. “He’d be a steal for Sean McVay. There’s so much talent, but it has to be coached right. Watch McVay turn him into a Pro Bowler in 3-4 years.” 4. Carson Beck, Miami He was aiming to declare for the 2025 draft, but after a down season and the need for surgery on a torn UCL in his right elbow, he decided to transfer to Miami and give it one more year. He was outstanding for the Hurricanes, completing 72.4% of his passes for 3,813 yards, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and leading them on an improbable run to the CFP final. He started three full years between Georgia and Miami, throwing for 11,239 yards, 82 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. He started a whopping 43 games in college. Draft range: Rounds 3-4. “He’s a Day 3 guy,” one scout told me, “but the lack of quarterbacks gives him a shot to go Day 2.” Height/weight: 6-5, 233 Scout takes: “He’s got the look of a classic, big, strong, pocket passer. When he sets and throws, the ball just jumps out of his hand. That was even better before his elbow surgery. It didn’t have the same jump last season, and maybe it doesn’t come back. But that’s still his gift. … He can be rattled. I don’t know if it’s mental or a physical thing, but he’s susceptible to pressure. He doesn’t move well and when things are off schedule he’s not the same. … Last year was a big step up for him mentally. He looked like he was in more command of his offense and made better decisions. But the physical part took a dip. His throws weren’t the same. … He gets a lot of passes batted at the line of scrimmage for a guy his size. It’s not all his fault, but it’s still weird.” Pro comp: Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett. Neither are a perfect comparison. Pickett had more mobility and Jones wasn’t pressured as much at Alabama. But they are big, pocket passers who can wilt when the pass rush comes. “The upside to guys like that is they can play like Eli Manning,” one scout told me, “but they can’t process nearly as well as him.” Biggest strength: Arm strength and pocket presence. As the scouts said, his arm isn’t what it used to be, but he can still fire the ball a long way and throw it hard. That’s especially true when he’s comfortable in the pocket. Biggest question mark: Play under pressure. When the pass rush throws him off schedule, things can go wrong fast. “His decision-making when he’s rushed isn’t always good,” one scout told me, “and the zip in his fastball can disappear, too.” Best fit: Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers. “He looks a little like Jared Goff, even though he doesn’t have his talent,” one scout told me. “But that Lions offense is the kind that he needs, with a strong running game and good line.” Another scout added: “Look what Kyle Shanahan did for Mac Jones. (Beck) is the same type of player. And (Shanahan) doesn’t need his quarterbacks to run.” 3. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU Considered by many to be one of the top quarterbacks heading into the 2025 season, his prospects were dimmed by an injury-marred season. He had an abdominal/core muscle injury that left him with “a stabbing pain in my ab every time I went to go throw,” he said at the NFL Scouting Combine. He still threw for 1,927 yards and 12 touchdowns with five interceptions in nine starts. But that was way off his 2024 season — 4,052 yards, 25 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. He made 23 starts in college. Draft range: Rounds 3-4 Height/Weight: 6-2, 203 Scout takes: “It’s a shame about the injury because I really thought he was the No. 1 guy in the class going into the season. He’s got such a strong arm. He’s generally pretty accurate. But the injury took it all away. He never looked like himself. … He’s a gunslinger, with all the good and bad that comes with that. When he’s on and healthy, he can make some incredible plays. But guys who play like that also make some really big mistakes. … If that injury was as bad as he says, it shows a heck of a lot of toughness to play through it.” Pro comp: Baker Mayfield. Two scouts mentioned the No. 1 overall pick of the 2018 draft. “Baker was much better in all areas,” one scout told me. “But the style of play was the same.” Another scout added: “You have to go way back, but you know who I really think of when I see him? Tony Romo. There’s a lot of talent there. You just have to reign him in.” Biggest strength: His arm. He might not have the strongest arm in the draft, but one scout told me he “can deliver big throws from a bunch of different arm angles.” Another scout added: “He thinks he can make every throw, because he probably can.” Biggest question mark: Questionable decision-making, at times. It’s the boom-or-bust reality of a “gunslinger.” As one scout told me, “He likes to take risks. That’s fine. But it doesn’t always work out. You have to live with that with guys like him.” Best fit: Pittsburgh Steelers. “He looks like (Mike) McCarthy’s kind of quarterback,” one scout told me. “He’s not on the same level as (Aaron) Rodgers or (Dak) Prescott, but the style and ability to play on the move is the same.” The Steelers, of course, need a franchise quarterback to groom for when (or if) the 42-year-old Rodgers retires. Also, Garrett’s father, Doug, was McCarthy’s quarterbacks coach in Dallas for three seasons. 2. Ty Simpson, Alabama He bucked the transfer trend of this era and stayed at Alabama for four years, waiting his turn to play. His patience finally paid off when he earned the starting job last season and was very good on a CFP team, completing 64.5% of his passes for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He also carried ‘Bama through a tough schedule, before fading down the stretch. He also made just 15 career starts in college. Draft range: Low first round or second round Height/weight: 6-1, 211 Scout takes: “Boy, does he need another year (in college). I like everything about him, but he’s not ready. He’s got to go to a team that has a starter and can take the time to work with him. If they do, he’s got the tools to be good. But he doesn’t have the experience to play right now. … He’s really smart and has a good arm, but he seems to think it’s better than it is. He thinks he can make every throw, but he can’t. … He’s tough and doesn’t like to give up on a play. But he’ll run himself into trouble trying to figure it out. That’s inexperience. … He’s a good mover, but not really a runner. He can scramble out of trouble, but doesn’t always know what to do once he does. He ends up holding the ball too long.” Pro comp: Brock Purdy. “He’s a better prospect (than Purdy),” one scout told me, “but the point is that he’s got the tools, and if the right guy develops him, he’ll be good.” Biggest strength: His accuracy. Scouts told me he didn’t seem to make a lot of mistakes with his decisions and ball placement, and that’s not easy against SEC defenses. Scouts also pointed to his four-week stretch against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee, all ranked in the top 16 at the time. Simpson averaged 267 passing yards and threw nine touchdowns and just one interception in that stretch, while Alabama went 4-0. “That was a big-boy stretch,” one scout told me, “and he was big-time.” Biggest question mark: He’s inexperienced. “You just can’t find many successful NFL quarterbacks who only had 15 college starts,” one scout told me. “It’s a huge risk.” Best fit: Arizona Cardinals. Several scouts noted Simpson would be a good system fit for the Rams, which would make him the same for new Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur, the former Rams offensive coordinator. They wouldn’t take him at No. 3 overall, though, so they’d have to consider trading back into the first round, probably into the low 20s, or hope that he falls to them at No. 34. One sleeper possibility: The Steelers at No. 21, since Mike McCarthy knows QBs and Aaron Rodgers can’t play forever. 1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana The reigning Heisman Trophy winner and national champion, he’s coming off a storybook season. In his one season with the Hoosiers, after transferring from Cal, he threw for 3,535 yards and completed 72% of his passes in 16 games, throwing 41 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He ran for 276 yards and seven touchdowns, too. He’s the clear cream of this crop. Draft range: Presumptive No. 1 overall pick (Las Vegas Raiders) Height/weight: 6-5, 236 Scout takes: “He’s the best quarterback in this class by far, but it’s not a good class. He would’ve been third (among QBs) last year and probably fifth or sixth (in 2024). … He’s a great kid and a strong leader. He comes off a little goofy, and I don’t know how well that’ll play (in the NFL), but his teammates seem to want to follow him. … He is so smart and so accurate. He can really thread the needle. If you give him time in the pocket, he can pick apart a defense. But that’s the key. You’ve got to give him time. He can’t move. … He needs to be behind a strong offensive line. He’s not going to create off schedule. I’m not sure Vegas is the best place for him.” Pro comp: The three names that came up the most were Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan — smart, pocket passers with limited mobility. “Goff had a better arm,” one scout told me. “Mendoza is more accurate than Goff was (in college), though. And he’s a much better prospect than Cousins was, but the style is similar.” Biggest strength: His accuracy and intelligence. Scouts raved about how he placed his throws in perfect spots, showing a remarkable ability to read defenses and his receivers’ intentions. It made up for what many told me was “average” arm strength. “If you look at his film,” one scout told me, “you’re not going to find many mistakes.” Another scout attributed that to “perfect” mechanics. Biggest question mark: His ability to move in the pocket and create off-schedule plays. His completion percentage dipped last season to 53.2% outside the pocket. He has trouble escaping pressure and doesn’t show the same arm strength when he’s not set. “That’s a real problem going to a bad team,” one scout told me. “He needs things perfect, and they won’t be.” Best fit: It’s a moot point because the Raiders will pick him No. 1 overall, even though one scout told me, “that might be the worst fit for him.” Another scout added: “Too bad he won’t drop to the middle of the first round. I’d love to see what a guy like (Vikings coach Kevin) O’Connell could do with him.”