2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Texas Among Last Four In, Indiana Out

March is filled with drama, but for a pair of blue-blood brands, it might come down to the longest wait in sports: Selection Sunday. The Texas Longhorns and Indiana Hoosiers both find themselves squarely on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday. According to FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy, Texas remains among his “Last Four In” following a loss to Ole Miss in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Sean Miller’s team owns six Quad 1 wins — more than several SEC contenders — but five losses in its last six games have left the Longhorns sweating. Meanwhile, Indiana’s late slide might have pushed the Hoosiers to the wrong side of the bubble. A double-digit loss to Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament was their sixth loss in seven games, dropping them into DeCourcy’s “First Four Out.” With that, DeCourcy shares his latest NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament projections: EAST REGION SOUTH REGION MIDWEST REGION WEST REGION And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy’s projections, VCU, SMU, Texas and New Mexico are the last four teams in the tournament, while Auburn, Seton Hall, San Diego State and Indiana are the first four out. As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 10 teams, while the Big Ten has nine teams. The ACC and the Big 12 each have eight teams in DeCourcy’s latest tournament projections. The Big East and the West Coast have three teams represented, while the Mountain West and A-10 have two teams. Selection Sunday is three days away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March Madness arrives.