2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Top Seeds Take Shape Ahead of Selection Sunday

The race for the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 seeds is nearly settled. In his latest bracket projections, FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy projects Duke, Florida, Michigan and Arizona on the top line as conference tournaments are underway across the country. Michigan, Duke and Arizona have separated themselves from the field over the course of the season and appear firmly positioned to hold their places as No. 1 seeds heading into Selection Sunday. Florida is the newest addition to that group. The Gators surged onto the top line after closing the regular season in dominant fashion, while UConn slipped following its surprising loss to Marquette in the Big East regular-season finale. That combination allowed Florida to jump the Huskies as the fourth and final 1-seed. Meanwhile, Iowa State, Houston and Michigan State join the Huskies on the 2-line. The result of the SEC and Big East Tournaments could show how secure the Gators’ spot really is. After Florida’s loss, the debate for the last spot on the top line will likely heat up again if UConn goes on to win the Big East Tournament. With that, DeCourcy shares his latest NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament projections: EAST REGION SOUTH REGION MIDWEST REGION WEST REGION As for the bubble, Missouri, VCU, SMU and Texas are the last four teams in the tournament, according to DeCourcy’s latest projections, while San Diego State, Auburn, Oklahoma and New Mexico are the first four out. As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 10 teams, while the Big Ten has nine teams. The ACC and the Big 12 each have eight teams in DeCourcy’s latest tournament projections. The Big East and the West Coast have three teams represented, while the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 have two teams. Selection Sunday is one day away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March Madness arrives.