4 Takeaways from Italy’s Stunning World Baseball Classic Upset Over Team USA

Daikin Park (Houston) — In the fourth inning of Italy’s 8-6 stunner over Team USA, Jac Caglianone hit the Azzurri’s third home run of the game. Returning to the dugout, he put on the Armani jacket waiting for him, downed a shot of espresso and received the due baci greeting from Vinnie Pasquantino, who placed a kiss on each of his Kansas City Royals teammate’s cheeks. Italy poured it on early and held on late for the biggest baseball win in its country’s history, putting the best USA roster ever assembled in danger of possibly not advancing out of its World Baseball Classic pool. “It means everything for me tonight,” said Italy manager Francisco Cervelli. “This is one of the best days of my life.” Here are my takeaways: 1. Behind Lorenzen’s Gem, Italy Gets Its Biggest Baseball Win Ever He mixed speeds and quadrants. He threw at least seven different kinds of pitches and got swings and misses on six of them. And for 4.2 innings, departing only after his pitch count ran above the allotted 65-pitch limit, Italy starter Michael Lorenzen blanked a lineup teeming with All-Stars and left them — and the 38,653 fans in attendance at Daikin Park — stunned and stupefied. Dating back to USA’s five-run outburst in the third inning Monday night against Mexico, the USA offense went scoreless for its next 10 innings until Gunnar Henderson’s solo home run in the sixth inning against Italy ended the drought. A late-inning rally wasn’t enough to erase Italy’s early barrage. Team Italy has made it to the quarterfinals twice in the WBC, including in the last tournament, but this victory against the USA is unlike anything before in the country’s baseball history and one of the biggest upsets in the tournament’s history. 2. Long Ball Bites USA’s McLean USA’s first three starting pitchers of the tournament — Logan Webb, Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes — have combined for six All-Star appearances and three Cy Young Awards over the last two years alone. The fourth member of the stacked rotation had only eight MLB starts to his name, but it was a testament to the preternatural skills of Mets top pitching prospect Nolan McLean that he was included on the roster. In the first inning Tuesday night, he demonstrated why, striking out the side with a fastball that sat in the high-90s, a masterful sweeper and a devastating curveball. But the bottom of Italy’s lineup, and its Southsider contingency, did not relent. After McLean got the first two outs of the second inning, White Sox catcher Kyle Teel recorded the first hit of the day for either team by taking a first-pitch fastball out for a solo shot. (Worth noting: He later left the game injured while legging out a double, and the only other catcher on Italy’s roster is J.J. D’Orazio, so Cervelli said Italy will probably have to roster bullpen catcher Andrés Annunziata moving forward.) Two batters after Teel started the scoring, White Sox prospect Sam Antonacci also jumped on McLean’s heater, sending a fastball up in the zone 403-feet out to right field. The home runs set the tone for an Italy team that continued pouring it on. “I think a lot of people would say it’s an upset,” Antonacci said. “But to us, it was kind of expected. And it’s nice to win, but we’re looking already to tomorrow and game-planning for that.” 3. Prospects, MLB Novices Carrying Italy’s Electric Offense Vinnie Pasquantino is the most recognizable name in Italy’s lineup, but it’s a group of less experienced MLB players and prospects who are shining for the Azzurri offense in the WBC. Dante Nori, a 2024 first-round pick of the Phillies, began the tournament 5-for-7 with two homers and a double. Andrew Fischer, a 2025 first-round pick of the Brewers, went 2-for-4 with a homer in the lone game he played. On Tuesday, it was Antonacci, Teel and Caglianone, another recent top prospect and 2025 rookie, delivering the decisive blows. The top five hitters in Italy’s lineup went hitless, but the Nos. 6-8 batters went 6-for-8 with three home runs and five RBI. Even before Italy’s youthful standouts continued to shine Tuesday night, Pasquantino talked glowingly about the team’s young hitters. “For the most part, that’s who’s done most of the damage on offense, is the prospects,” Pasquantino told me ahead of Tuesday’s game. “It’s been great to see the confidence that they have. Fischer is a treat, the way he carries himself. He’s awesome. Dante Nori is awesome. Sam Antonacci is awesome. “I can’t say enough good things about these guys. It makes me feel old saying this, the game’s in good hands, like with some of the guys coming up that I’ve been able to have the pleasure to get to know the past few days, past week.” 4. PCA’s Two Late Homers Not Enough — But Could Still Matter Losing at all is a dreadful result for the U.S. and its star-studded roster, but given the runs-allowed tiebreaker that could determine the winner and runner-up of Pool B, USA’s sixth-inning calamity was especially unsightly and potentially costly. Already trailing 5-0, Brad Keller relieved Ryan Yarbrough with one on and one out in the sixth when he walked the first batter he faced. Keller then got the double-play ball he needed to escape the threat, but he bounced the throw into center field. One run scored on the error, then two more came across on a sacrifice fly and a wild pitch, ballooning Italy’s lead to 8-0. USA’s ability to battle back with six unanswered runs — including two home runs from Pete Crow-Armstrong — didn’t change the outcome, but every run could be the difference given the potential tiebreakers in play. 4 ½. What’s Next? Chaos, potentially. The U.S. (3-1) has played its last pool-play game, so Pool B will all come down to Wednesday’s matchup between Italy (3-0) and Mexico (3-1). If Italy beats Mexico on Wednesday or if Mexico scores at least five runs, the U.S. will advance. [WBC Tiebreakers: How Can USA Advance?] The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, but if Mexico beats Italy, then all three teams at the top of the pool will have beaten one another. The next tiebreaker is the lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the game between the tied teams.