Men’s College Hoops Spotlight: Diving Deep into 10 NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams

As far as high-pressure moments go, Tuesday night was chock-full of them for March Madness hopefuls living life on the bubble. Three of those teams scored upsets over ranked opponents when UCLA toppled No. 9 Nebraska, TCU upended No. 10 Texas Tech and Georgia dispatched No. 16 Alabama. Several more from outside the power conferences improved their position as well, setting the stage for what should be an excellent final few days of the regular season. Though this year’s collection of bubble teams isn’t as strong as we’ve seen in the past, there’s no shortage of storylines among the schools still jockeying for position. Big brands like Ohio State, Indiana and Auburn are clawing for potential at-large bids. As are several traditional mid-major powers like New Mexico, VCU and San Diego State. So as the madness draws ever closer, here’s a breakdown of 10 teams hovering along the NCAA Tournament cut line with less than two weeks to Selection Sunday: 1. Ohio State Buckeyes Record: 18-11 overall, 10-8 Big Ten WAB Rank: No. 37 NET Rank: No. 34 Breakdown: 2-10 vs. Quad 1; 6-1 vs. Quad 2; 4-0 vs. Quad 3; 6-0 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: at Penn State (March 4); vs. Indiana (March 7) Even though Ohio State hasn’t won consecutive games since defeating UCLA and Minnesota in mid-January, it quickly jumped to the right side of this year’s bubble by defeating then-No. 8 Purdue over the weekend. That victory gave the Buckeyes their second win over a ranked opponent after knocking off then-No. 24 Wisconsin on Feb. 17, assuring head coach Jake Diebler and his team of finishing no worse than .500 in Big Ten play. With only one defeat to teams ranked outside the top 54 in KenPom, the Buckeyes have done an excellent job avoiding bad losses while always showing up against overmatched conference opponents. Barring three straight defeats between now and Selection Sunday — two in the regular season and one in the Big Ten Tournament — it’s fair to say Ohio State should feel comfortable about its chances of earning an at-large bid. [MEN’S NCAA: Top 10, Bubble Team NET Rankings] 2. TCU Horned Frogs Record: 20-10 overall, 10-7 Big 12 WAB Rank: No. 42 NET Rank: No. 45 Breakdown: 4-6 vs. Quad 1; 5-2 vs. Quad 2; 3-1 vs. Quad 3; 7-1 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: vs. Cincinnati (March 7) In some respects, the Horned Frogs have spent the season digging themselves out of a hole that originated during an opening-night defeat to New Orleans, a team that was ranked No. 297 in KenPom when that game was played back on Nov. 3. Though head coach Jamie Dixon and his team eventually reached 11-3 overall, they began conference play with an unsightly 1-4 start that kept them below .500 in the Big 12 until a three-game winning streak at the end of February. But Tuesday’s massive victory over No. 10 Texas Tech means the Horned Frogs will finish no worse than 10-8 in what is largely considered the toughest conference in the country. The result added another marquee victory alongside earlier wins over then-No. 10 Florida and then-No. 5 Iowa State that have aged extremely well. TCU has likely punched its ticket. [AP TOP 25: UNC Surges, Alabama Exits, Fairfield Enters] 3. Auburn Tigers Record: 16-14 overall, 7-10 SEC WAB Rank: No. 48 NET Rank: No. 38 Breakdown: 5-11 vs. Quad 1; 2-2 vs. Quad 2; 2-1 vs. Quad 3; 6-0 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: at No. 16 Alabama (March 7) Unless something drastically changes via a lengthy SEC tournament run, the Tigers will almost certainly be among the most divisive, most scrutinized teams come Selection Sunday. Auburn began the season, its first under head coach Steven Pearl, ranked No. 20 in the AP Poll after reaching the Final Four last year. But things soon unraveled for a team with one of the best offenses in the country — the Tigers are still ranked No. 11 in KenPom for offensive efficiency — that is routinely let down by a defense checking in at No. 119 nationally. Still, noteworthy victories over then-No. 14 St. John’s, then-No. 15 Arkansas and then-No. 16 Florida have been enough to keep Auburn’s postseason hopes afloat despite sinking three games below .500 in conference play. A victory over No. 16 Alabama in the regular season finale on Saturday would make the Tigers’ case even more polarizing. 4. Seton Hall Pirates Record: 20-10 overall, 10-9 Big East WAB Rank: No. 55 NET Rank: No. 56 Breakdown: 2-4 vs. Quad 1; 5-4 vs. Quad 2; 6-2 vs. Quad 3; 6-0 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: vs. No. 18 St. John’s (March 6) Had Seton Hall assembled this kind of résumé amid a more traditional season for the Big East — one that included more than three teams ranked among the top 50 in KenPom — the Pirates would be all but assured of an at-large berth. But this year’s Big East has fallen to fifth in net rating among the power conferences behind the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten and ACC, and that has lessened the impressiveness of what a near-.500 record in league play really means. Head coach Shaheen Holloway and his group secured a decent non-conference victory by knocking off NC State in late November, but that remains the Pirates’ only win over a team projected to make the NCAA Tournament from the power leagues. The regular season finale against St. John’s will give Seton Hall one more chance to add a high-profile ranked win before the conference tournament. 5. San Diego State Aztecs Record: 19-10 overall, 13-6 Mountain West WAB Rank: No. 52 NET Rank: No. 44 Breakdown: 2-5 vs. Quad 1; 5-3 vs. Quad 2; 5-1 vs. Quad 3; 6-0 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: vs. UNLV (March 6) Three years removed from reaching the national championship game, San Diego State finds itself in the precarious position of potentially missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2018-19 campaign. An early season, double-overtime loss to Troy was compounded by lopsided nonconference defeats to then-No. 7 Michigan and then-No. 1 Arizona that suggested the Aztecs were significantly removed from the nation’s elite. And while they reeled off 12 victories in their first 14 games during Mountain West play to amass an 18-6 record, three conference losses across 11 days in late February dragged head coach Brian Dutcher and his team back toward the bubble. At this point, the biggest pluses on San Diego State’s résumé are victories over conference rivals and projected NCAA Tournament teams New Mexico and Utah State, both of which split their respective season series with the Aztecs. 6. Santa Clara Broncos Record: 24-7 overall, 15-3 WCC WAB Rank: No. 41 NET Rank: No. 41 Breakdown: 1-5 vs. Quad 1; 6-1 vs. Quad 2; 8-0 vs. Quad 3; 8-1 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: Conference tournament Former NC State and Arizona State head coach Herb Sendek has brought Santa Clara within a whisker of its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996. Aside from a shocking defeat to Loyola Chicago on Dec. 20 — the Ramblers are now ranked No. 308 in KenPom — Sendek and his team have largely avoided bad losses. Their only other blemishes came against Saint Louis, New Mexico, Gonzaga (twice), Saint Mary’s and Arizona State, with all but the latter expected to make the NCAA Tournament. A respectable nonconference slate includes wins over power-conference foes Xavier and Minnesota, plus a double-digit victory against McNeese, a potential March Madness entrant for the third consecutive season. The Broncos likely need to win at least one game in their conference tournament to feel comfortable about earning an at-large bid from a league that typically only receives two spots, though there’s a path toward three berths for the WCC this season. 7. Cal Golden Bears Record: 20-9 overall, 8-8 ACC WAB Rank: No. 50 NET Rank: No. 63 Breakdown: 4-4 vs. Quad 1; 2-4 vs. Quad 2; 5-1 vs. Quad 3; 8-0 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: at Georgia Tech (March 4); at Wake Forest (March 7) Under the direction of head coach Mark Madsen — who won two NBA championships as a reserve center with the Los Angeles Lakers — the Bears are eager to snap a decade-long NCAA Tournament drought. Now in his third season, Madsen has improved the program from 13 wins in 2023-24 to 14 wins in 2024-25 and now 20 victories so far this year. A sizzling 12-1 start gave way to some early stumbles in conference play, with the Bears dropping four of their first five ACC games. Since then, though, Madsen’s team has vaulted back into postseason contention by winning seven of its last 11 games, including noteworthy victories over likely NCAA Tournament teams North Carolina, Miami and SMU. An ugly loss to Pittsburgh last weekend erased some of the Bears’ positive momentum, but winnable games against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest to end the regular season should still give Cal a chance to solidify its case. 8. VCU Rams Record: 23-7 overall, 14-3 Atlantic 10 WAB Rank: No. 46 NET Rank: No. 47 Breakdown: 1-5 vs. Quad 1; 4-2 vs. Quad 2; 8-0 vs. Quad 3; 9-0 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: at Dayton (March 6) After guiding Bryant to the NCAA Tournament last season, head coach Phil Martelli Jr. left the Bulldogs to take over at VCU, a strong mid-major program with 14 NCAA Tournament appearances already this century, including one Final Four trip in 2011. This year’s Rams had plenty of opportunities to show they are worthy of adding to that postseason pedigree in games against likely March Madness qualifiers Utah State, NC State, Vanderbilt, New Mexico and Saint Louis (twice) — but all of them ended in defeat. VCU’s most notable victory entering the A-10 Tournament is an impressive 18-point clobbering of Virginia Tech, which is squarely on the bubble itself at 19-11 overall and 8-9 in the ACC. Martelli’s group likely needs to win its final regular season contest and at least a game or two in the conference tournament to offset a relatively soft résumé that was inflated by subpar competition. 9. New Mexico Lobos Record: 22-7 overall, 13-5 Mountain West WAB Rank: No. 45 NET Rank: No. 42 Breakdown: 2-5 vs. Quad 1; 6-5 vs. Quad 2; 4-1 vs. Quad 3; 9-0 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: vs. Colorado State (March 4); at Utah State (March 7) When head coach Richard Pitino left for Xavier after guiding New Mexico to consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances in the last two seasons, the Lobos responded with a shrewd hire of Eric Olen, who’d overseen the transition from Division II to Division I at UC San Diego and then led the Tritons to 30 victories and a March Madness bid last year. Now, Olen has New Mexico on the cusp of reaching the NCAA Tournament for a third consecutive season, something that only happened on two other occasions in program history (1995-99; 2011-14). The Lobos secured impressive nonconference wins over fellow bubble teams Santa Clara and VCU that could prove massively important come Selection Sunday. But they’re also entering Wednesday’s game against Colorado State sitting tied for second in the Mountain West standings, trailing Utah State and level with San Diego State. There’s still work to be done. 10. Indiana Hoosiers Record: 17-12 overall, 8-10 Big Ten WAB Rank: No. 51 NET Rank: No. 40 Breakdown: 2-11 vs. Quad 1; 2-1 vs. Quad 2; 6-0 vs. Quad 3; 7-0 vs. Quad 4 Remaining schedule: vs. Minnesota (March 4); at Ohio State (March 7) The fact that Indiana is still alive — somehow, someway, against all odds — demonstrates just how soft this year’s bubble really is, which should double as a warning for those in favor of NCAA Tournament expansion. Despite wins over then-No. 12 Purdue and UCLA in late January, the Hoosiers have endured two separate four-game losing streaks in Big Ten play and need to win both of their remaining games just to finish .500 in the conference. They did not beat a single non-conference foe currently ranked among the top 100 in KenPom, with blowouts of Marquette (No. 103) and Kansas State (No. 102) — two teams with just eight league wins combined — representing all that first-year head coach Darian DeVries can cling to in that portion of his résumé. Indiana will likely need to win two or three more games between now and Selection Sunday to have a realistic chance at making the field.