2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament Projections: Purdue, Kansas Rise; Nebraska Falls

As Kansas climbs to a projected No. 2 seed in Mike DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament projections, the loudest conversation around the program has centered on freshman guard Darryn Peterson’s availability, a narrative coach Bill Self called “not remotely true.” The noise followed Peterson’s absence Monday night, when he missed his 11th game of the season, this one due to illness. In the days since, criticism from the national media and fans has grown around Peterson. Lost in that discussion is the bigger picture: the Jayhawks have won eight in a row and just notched arguably the best victory in the country without their freshman star — an 82-78 win over No. 1 Arizona. Peterson’s availability remains a storyline, but Kansas’ move up the seed line says far more about where this team stands entering the final stretch of conference play. As the 2025-26 regular season quickly winds down, DeCourcy shares his latest NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament projections. EAST REGION SOUTH REGION MIDWEST REGION WEST REGION And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy’s projections, Texas, Santa Clara, Virginia Tech and Missouri are the last four teams in the tournament, while San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State and New Mexico are the first four out. As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 11 teams, while the Big Ten has ten teams in DeCourcy’s latest tournament projections. The ACC has nine teams represented, the Big 12 has seven teams in the mix and the Big East and West Coast have three teams each. Selection Sunday is just over one month away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.