Men’s College Basketball Top 10, Bubble Team NET Rankings: U-M is No. 1 Once More

The top 25 rankings are important for understanding just who is killing it in college basketball, but we can go deeper — all the way to the bubble and beyond. The NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, is a rankings system used in Division I basketball to help figure out which teams are going to participate in March Madness. As the NCAA puts it, NET “takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses,” the latter of which is determined by placing every Division I matchup into different quadrants, ranked 1 through 4, with 1 being the strongest teams and 4 the weakest — Quads aren’t just determined by record, but also whether a game was played at home, on the road or at a neutral site. Using NET, we can get a sense of which teams are the best at a given moment, as well as which ones are on the bubble for selection in March. While updated daily by the NCAA, we’ll track changes weekly. With that, here are the top 10 men’s college basketball teams through Feb. 9, according to NET. The Top 10 10. Purdue (previous: 8) Not a single team in the top 10 is in the same spot it was a week ago, and one — Nebraska — fell out of it entirely. Granted, just to 11th, but this isn’t a top 11 section, is it? Purdue might have stopped its three-game losing streak, but defeating unranked Oregon by just 4 points in a game in which the Boilermakers scored 68 isn’t exactly filling NET with confidence. Well, an algorithm’s equivalent of confidence, anyway. Purdue, by the way, takes on Nebraska on Feb. 10 on the road, the result of which will likely determine which of the two shows up in these rankings next week. 9. Florida (previous: 12) The reason Nebraska has been ejected from the top 10 is thanks to the rise of Florida. The Gators, like Purdue, played just one game last week. But unlike the Boilermakers, they made a positive impression by defeating Texas A&M by 19 points. Despite all those early losses, Florida is first in the SEC, and are given a bit of slack for some of those defeats by NET owing to having played the 8th-toughest schedule of anyone in Division I men’s basketball, which in turn is the second-toughest schedule in this top 10. 8. UConn (previous: 7) UConn got out of the 8th spot in NET for less than a week before being upset by a resurgent St. John’s last Friday. Before that, though, the Huskies defeated Xavier by 32 points, and the Red Storm just barely escaped the Musketeers in overtime on Monday, so the damage to UConn’s NET ranking wasn’t all that significant. The Huskies play Butler and Georgetown over the next week, so they have a chance to bolster their Big East standing even before the rematch with the Red Storm later this month. 7. Gonzaga (previous: 5) It’s a little surprising to see Gonzaga slide back so little after being upset by Portland, given the Pilots were 0-2 in Quad 1 games, 0-7 in Quad 2 and ranked 230th in NET before the matchup. But with UConn, Purdue and Nebraska all taking a little bit of a step back, Gonzaga’s fall was cushioned. Still, the Bulldogs have had a bunch of close calls in West Coast play, and if losing to Portland wasn’t a wake up call, then there might very well be another loss before conference tourney time. 6. Houston (previous: 9) Houston beat formerly ranked UCF by 24 points, then came out ahead in a ranked-ranked matchup with BYU despite freshman star AJ Dybantsa having a great game. That showing was enough to get Houston to No. 3 in this week’s poll and in FOX Sports analyst Casey Jacobsen’s own top 25, but NET still has the Cougars in 6th. Still, that’s a three-spot jump, which is a ton for the top 10 at this time of year — usually we have been seeing that big of a move only in the other direction. 5. Iowa State (previous: 4) Iowa State dropped back a little here given that the Cyclones 1) played one game, against Baylor and 2) won it by 3 points. Baylor is a good team — currently 46th in NET — but Iowa State needs to down a top-50 team by more than a bucket if it’s going to stick where it was in the rankings. The Cyclones have a couple of major tests lined up in the next week: first, No. 9 Kansas on Saturday at home, then they will host Houston on Monday. 4. Illinois (previous: 6) The Fighting Illini moved up a couple of spots despite losing to Michigan State in overtime, in part because the Spartans are 12th in NET, limiting the penalty for a defeat, and in its one other game Illinois took down Northwestern by 40 points. So all in all a pretty good showing, enough to shuffle upward amid the chaos happening around Illinois. 3. Duke (previous: 1) Chaos like Duke losing to UNC in the annual Tobacco Road showdown, which knocked the Blue Devils out of the top spot — North Carolina gets more respect from the poll than it does from NET — and otherwise only playing Boston College. That was a dub, but a top-tier team is only going to get so much credit for downing the Eagles, which is a top-150 team miles from the bubble. 2. Arizona (previous: 2) Arizona not only lost to Kansas, but to a Kansas team that didn’t have star freshman Darryn Peterson available. The Wildcats held steady in NET — like with Illinois losing to Michigan State, Kansas is well-regarded enough at 13th for this defeat to not sink Arizona — but losing to such a high-quality opponent did keep them from being able to grab the top spot. Next up? No. 16 Texas Tech. 1. Michigan (previous: 3) Michigan held on at the top of the NET rankings for the vast majority of the season, from the first ranking until just a few weeks back, and did so not just thanks to piling up dominant wins, but also because of the quality of competition the Wolverines faced. This past week was more about the first of those, as Michigan downed Ohio State and Penn State by a combined 62 points. Ohio State is a top-40 team, at least, even after a 21-point drubbing, but with Duke and Arizona both losing, Michigan was able to hold on to its regained top-dog status. Risers and Fallers In the span of a week, some teams can see their spot in the rankings dramatically shift. Here are the five teams that rose the most in men’s college basketball in the last week… T5. Loyola Marymount CA, 187 to 160: LMU took down San Francisco and San Diego in the past week, with the latter win a 20-point one. San Francisco was the more impressive dub, however, as it was a top-100 team before this upset. T5. Eastern Washington, 264 to 237: A two-win week for Eastern Washington, which beat Montana, 82-74, then squeezed by top-150 Montana State, 72-71, for a significant upset. T3. UTRGV, 162 to 134: The Vaqueros had two convincing wins, defeating New Orleans by 19 before taking down Nicholls by 20. Neither is even a top-200 team, but UTRGV took care of business enough to get a big jump in NET. T3. Portland, 231 to 203: Portland didn’t just sneak by Gonzaga. It won, 87-80. The Pilots then followed that up with a narrow victory over Seattle, which even after the loss is still 135th in NET — this is the best week Portland is going to have for a long time. Hey, it’s not every week you get your first-ever top-10 W. T1. Denver, 271 to 242: Denver upset North Dakota State (118th in NET) then followed that up with a 21-point W over North Dakota. Denver and North Dakota were ranked similarly in NET, but now there is quite the gap between the two. T1. Arkansas State, 174 to 145: Arkansas State defeated Coastal Carolina in a game that was a little closer than it probably should have been, but made up for it the next time out by taking 136th-ranked Bowling Green and crushing it 91-54. The Red Wolves beat the Falcons so badly that they also leapfrogged them in NET. …and the five that fell the furthest. 5. Purdue Fort Wayne, 218 to 238: The Mastodons lost to Youngstown State by 29 points, which did most of the damage here. Losing a second game to Wright State by just 5 points only cost Purdue Fort Wayne that last spot in NET; the rest was all because of the Youngstown loss. 4. Western Michigan, 273 to 294: Rough week of MACtion for Western Michigan, which lost to Ohio and Texas State by a combined 36 points. 3. Nicholls, 233 to 255: Before the Colonels got crushed by UTRGV, they also lost to Texas A&M Corpus-Christi. This week could go much better, since Nicholls faces UIW and Houston Christian, both of which are top-300 teams. T1. Mercer, 134 to 159: A terrible loss to Chattanooga — which entered the game barely in the top-300 in NET — was followed by Samford beating the Bears, 69-49, for another L that was just as bad. The gap in NET was narrower, yeah, but not “lose by 20 points” narrower. T1. Idaho State, 191 to 216: Before this past week, Big Sky conference leader Portland State crushed Idaho State, which did not recover in any of its games this week. The Bengals would fall to both Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado, dropping them to 10-15 overall and 3-9 in conference play. [Get to Know a Mid-Major: Big Sky] On the Bubble Of the 68 March Madness teams in the tournament, 31 of them are conference champions who receive automatic entry into the tournament. The other 37 spots are at-large bids. With that in mind, we will look at the teams ranked between 64-to-73 in NET each week, as those are the ones who are the most on the bubble for the tourney. 73. Butler (previous: 64): Tough week for Butler, which lost to Providence in overtime and then was upset by Marquette, too. It’s not going to get any easier for the Bulldogs this week, with UConn next up on the schedule. 72. Colorado (previous: 75): The Buffaloes lost to top-50 Baylor, 86-67, but then won against Arizona State to end up ahead of where they were a week ago by a few spots. 71. Syracuse (previous: 72): An abbreviated — and strange — week for the Orange, which lost to a ranked Virginia team, 72-59, and ended up moving up a spot in NET because of it. 70. Grand Canyon (previous: 67): The Antelopes took care of business against Air Force, 81-57, but didn’t have as much luck against UNLV. That was an issue, too, since UNLV was merely a top-150 team, while Air Force is one of the 20 or so worst in D-I. 69. Cincinnati (previous: 78): Cincinnati was narrowly defeated by West Virginia — 66th in NET — but bounced back by dropping 92 points on UCF. While the Knights are a long way from their one week as a ranked team, that was still a top-40 team that Cincinnati dropped. 68. Stanford (previous: 77): Stanford lost to ranked Clemson by just 2 points, then scored 95 against Georgia Tech in a 23-point W. That’s the kind of week that can make a difference on the bubble. 67. Wake Forest (previous: 73): The Demon Deacons have not played much of late, but in their one February game lost to ranked Louisville by just 8 points. While Louisville is just No. 24 in the poll right now, in NET, it’s 14th — that’s a good loss for a team on the bubble, basically. 66. Yale (previous: 63): Yale defeated Brown, 81-69, then took out non-conference Howard, 87-81, in overtime on Monday. The problem is that Howard was barely a top-250 team, meaning Yale never should have been pushed to the point of OT against it. 65. Oklahoma State (previous: 68): Upsetting ranked BYU was huge, especially while putting up just shy of 100 points on the Cougars. Then losing to Arizona 84-47 is less good. In fact, the W against BYU shot the Cowboys all the way up to 49th in NET, and losing that badly to the Wildcats brought them back down here just a few spots ahead of last week’s spot. 64. McNeese (previous: 61): Two wins for McNeese this week, but the quality of them wasn’t the best. Winning against UIW by 17 points was a slight positive, but going to overtime against Houston Christian — which is now a top-300 team thanks to a close defeat against McNeese — sent the Cowboys back in the other direction.