How Texas QB Arch Manning Fell From Projected No. 1 Pick To Potential Benching

There is no sugarcoating it: After an offseason in which he was widely predicted to be the No. 1 overall pick of the 2027 NFL Draft, Texas quarterback Arch Manning simply has not progressed as expected this season. Now, as I wrote in my latest NFL Draft QB Power Rankings, I still believe Manning would be a first-round pick in April if he were to turn pro. Whether he should be, however, is a different conversation. So, let’s have that conversation. Fair or not, Manning’s struggles (and those of the Texas Longhorns, as a whole) have become the biggest storyline in college football. This week, he surrendered first-team reps in practice and was nearly benched ahead of Texas’ showdown with Ole Miss. A deep dive into all of Manning’s college tape, as well as conversations with scouts watching him in person this fall, elucidate how he’s struggling and why his NFL draft stock might be tumbling. To start, let’s talk about pressure. We’ll discuss the expectations that come with Manning simply due to his last name a bit later. That is the sort of pressure that comes off the field. The single biggest concern scouts have with Manning on the field is the alarming lack of poise he’s shown late in games, especially when the pocket is collapsing. Now, to be fair, the Longhorns have surrendered a lot of hits on their prized quarterback this season. Even the coolest of quarterbacks might struggle if sacked 17 times in just six games, as Manning has. A year ago, the Longhorns allowed 23 sacks over 13 games. Quarterbacks with Manning’s experience and tools, however, should be able to help his blockers and avoid more of those sacks. He’s not deciphering defenses prior to taking the snap as well as he should be, and too often he’s waiting in the pocket for receivers to break free, rather than scrambling himself. Manning is actually on pace to run more times this year than last, but he looks hesitant to leave the pocket in 2026 after being highly aggressive (and productive) a season ago. In 2025, Manning ran 92 times, generating 399 yards (4.3 yards per carry) and 10 touchdowns. He’s scrambled 49 times already this season but for just 108 yards (2.2 ypc) and no scores. Rather than taking advantage of his mobility (more on this later), Manning is waiting in the pocket. He doesn’t look patient there, however. He looks anxious and, frankly, a bit frenetic. This lack of anticipation and poise is leading to turnovers – whether it be Manning throwing the ball up for grabs or having it knocked out of his hands. This past Saturday was the latter, as Manning coughed up a game-sealing fumble in a home loss to Florida. As mentioned, one of the most exciting parts of Manning’s game is his dual-threat ability. He can be quite an effective scrambler, but let’s focus on his ability as a mobile passer for a moment. Quite the opposite of his relatively heavy-footed uncles Peyton and Eli, Arch (6-foot-4, 222 pounds) is a gifted athlete who is a real threat to scramble and throw on the run. This skill is especially important in the red zone, where dual-threat quarterbacks put an extra degree of stress on the defense. Manning has the athleticism, balance, quick release and velocity to be very effective in this area, and yet the Longhorns are inexplicably not featuring arguably his greatest strength. It’s even more surprising given that Manning’s mobility – whether as a runner or passer – was a key part of the Texas offense a year ago. in 2025, several of Manning’s 26 touchdown tosses came on designed rollouts, including nearly half (four of nine) thrown inside the 10-yard line. Manning has thrown 11 touchdowns so far this season. None of them have come on designed rollouts to his right. Manning can only “run” the plays called, so perhaps this is more of a reflection on Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian’s playcalling than the inadequacies of the quarterback. NFL teams will make their own determinations on that front. Given that this is Manning’s fourth season of college football, it is easy for fans to forget that last year was Manning’s first as a full-time starter. Scouts won’t forget that fact, however. They weren’t overly concerned with some of the sandlot-style turnovers he produced in 2025. Take this one against San Jose State, for example. Thankfully, Manning isn’t making throws quite this egregious in his second season as a starter, but there is simply no denying that he continues to make silly mistakes. By now, it is likely that everyone reading has seen the two fourth-quarter interceptions he threw against rival Oklahoma. The first was a wild and desperate overthrow that turned into a pick-six. The second one set up a game-winning field goal for the Sooners, so it deserves the most scorn. But, frankly, it was more of a bad decision than a bad throw. With a timeout remaining, Manning should have thrown the ball elsewhere or even taken the sack. Hit low by a blitzer, Manning couldn’t step into the throw and therefore didn’t deliver with his usual zip. A heads-up play by Oklahoma cornerback Courtland Guillory sealed the Longhorns’ fate. Manning was under significant duress on both plays, and we’ve already discussed how he’s melted under pressure at times this season. What is just as concerning is the fact that Manning now seems to have picked up the bad habit of simply lofting deep balls into double coverage. Three of Manning’s five interceptions so far this season were essentially arm punts, such as this one against Tennessee. NFL teams want quarterbacks willing to trust their receivers to go make plays on the ball, but wild overthrows are the kind of things that sink draft stock and, worse, put even highly-drafted QBs on the bench. Given his pedigree, it might surprise some to learn that Manning remains unrefined in terms of his passing technique and ability to read defenses. Let’s start at the base. Too often, Manning unnecessarily throws off-balance. Ideally, quarterbacks step into their throws, creating torque from the lower body and following through in one smooth motion that generates velocity and accuracy. Manning has a tendency to remain flat-footed and whip his arm. It results in a very quick release – that is unusual for a taller, long-limbed passer – but also sporadic accuracy. He consistently hits his targets, but not often enough in stride or with the type of pinpoint accuracy that generates easy yards after the catch. This hinders trust from his pass-catchers, which is why the 33 drops (per Pro Football Focus) from Texas receivers since 2025 are as much of an indictment on Manning as they are his receivers. And it isn’t just Manning’s throwing technique. Lots of quarterbacks have succeeded with unique throwing motions. Philip Rivers is an eight-time Pro Bowler who might be enshrined in Canton one day, but he had as awkward of a throwing delivery as you’ll see. Throwing the ball effectively is an art, and each quarterback has his own style. But quality QBs need to be able to read defenses and throw with tempo and anticipation. There should be a consistency to their game. Manning, meanwhile, can be maddening with his decision-making. He’ll switch from Superman to Clark Kent and vice versa, taking highly aggressive deep shots into double-coverage at inopportune times and reverting to checkdowns at others. The expectation many had for Manning was that he’d be a superstar prospect the moment he stepped onto the field for the Longhorns. That doesn’t give enough credit to opponents and the complexity of the quarterback position. While he’s 22 years old and has been in college for four seasons, Manning has only started a total of 21 games to this point. It feels worth noting that Peyton (45 starts) and Eli (37) started nearly twice as many games prior to entering the NFL. There is no denying that Arch Manning’s path to the NFL has been bumpier than expected. There are several areas in which he needs to improve. Sarkisian is concerned enough that he considered benching Manning this week while giving freshman KJ Lacey Jr. first-team reps as Texas prepares to play Ole Miss on Saturday. Standing on the opposite sideline will be the quarterback who has seemingly surged past Manning on draft boards across the NFL: Trinidad Chambliss. But that’s a footnote, for now. Given Manning’s tenuous status just with the Longhorns, this game has become the biggest of his career.