West Coast Read: Can Dream Team Rams Really Miss The Playoffs? Why The Case Is Building

The Los Angeles Rams, who were historically heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl at the start of the year, are now among the NFL’s early-season bottom feeders with their 1-2 start. On the surface, that record shouldn’t be cause for concern. In fact, they still hold a 70% chance of reaching the postseason (according to The Athletic) and they have -250 odds to make the playoffs. However, the Rams’ start has been poor enough that the Buffalo Bills have surpassed them as the betting favorite to win it all. And the road to the 1-2 start hasn’t been pretty as Sean McVay’s Rams are licking their wounds. They bungled their travel plans to Australia, where they got drilled by the San Francisco 49ers. This past Sunday, they suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Denver Broncos, blowing a 16-0 lead before a questionable defensive pass interference call in the final minutes helped decide the game. After apologizing to local media for leaving his media availability early minutes after his team’s loss in Mile High City, the always positive McVay continued to find a silver lining in the disappointing start to his team’s season. “The only real growth occurs through some of these adverse moments, and you certainly don’t want it,” McVay told reporters this week. “I know this; we’ve talked a lot about it, and this is when you get a chance to lean in. I love the resiliency of this group.” But as McVay searches for the positives, maybe he should be focused on the negatives. I predicted in the offseason that the Rams would not reach the postseason this year before amending that take after the Rams traded for Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald unretired. It’s worth going back and revisiting the reasons for suggesting one of the best rosters put together this century might wind up on the outside looking in this postseason, though. Mainly, I pointed to an aging roster, led by a 38-year-old quarterback coming off his best year statistically as a pro — leading to some natural regression, and playing one of the toughest schedules in the league, with the second-most travel miles in the NFL. Seeing Matthew Stafford wince in pain after throwing an interception and trying to tackle Denver safety Talanoa Hufanga on his return for a score brought back memories of L.A.’s 5-12 Super Bowl hangover after winning it all in 2021. The Rams entered that season with high expectations as they returned the nucleus of that Super Bowl team. Those expectations were squashed, though, when Stafford suffered a back injury that kept him out for the second half of that season. It’s one of the reasons Los Angeles spent a first-round pick on his eventual replacement, Ty Simpson. And Father Time is undefeated, even if Stafford insists he’s OK. “A little elbow, but I came back and threw the ball the rest of the game and I was fine,” Stafford responded when asked after the game about his elbow issue. Stafford has unfortunately looked his age this season, failing to play at the MVP level he performed at a year ago. He led the league in passing yards (4,707), passing touchdowns (46) and finished second in passer rating (109.2) in 2025, totaling just eight interceptions last season. This year through three games, Stafford is third in passing yards (872), tied for ninth in passing touchdowns (6) and 17th in passer rating (88.1). Only Drake Maye (6) has more than Stafford’s four interceptions this season. Specifically, Stafford struggles when pressured. Stafford is 13-of-36 (36.1%) for 171 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions when pressured, according to Next Gen Stats. He’s been sacked five times in those situations, posting a 28.8 passer rating. Last season during his MVP campaign, Stafford completed 84-of-155 (54.2%) of his passes for 1,040 yards, with five touchdowns and no interceptions when pressured. He was sacked 23 times in those situations, posting an 86.0 passer rating. With the fourth-oldest roster in the NFL, the Rams are already showing their age. Garrett, 30, lasted one game before going on injured reserve to fix a knee injury he aggravated during training camp. Garrett’s missed two games and will miss two more before he’s eligible to come off injured reserve, but could be out longer. Cornerback Jaylen Watson, who was brought in to help revamp the secondary over the offseason, left the loss to the Broncos early due to a shoulder injury and is expected to miss Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Even the young players for the Rams are getting hurt. Physical, but oft-injured No. 1 receiver Puka Nacua has missed the last two games with a groin injury. McVay said Nacua’s expected to return this week, but there was some discussion that the star wide receiver could end up undergoing surgery if the injury persists. Second-year tight end Terrance Ferguson is also expected to miss time due to an ankle injury he suffered in the loss to the Broncos. In total, the Rams currently have six players listed on injured reserve, with a few other players (like Ferguson and Watson) set to miss time and could join that list, too. Los Angeles is in the middle of a tough, five-game slate to start the year. After losing at Denver, the Rams travel to Philadelphia — a place they have struggled in years past — to face the Eagles. The franchise is 1-5 in games at Philadelphia since 2002, with the lone win coming in the COVID-impacted 2020 season. Then, the Rams head back to the West Coast to host Josh Allen and one of the best teams in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills. Los Angeles could be looking at 1-4 before getting a reprieve by hosting former offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6. Their schedule is set to get easier in November after closing October with a matchup against the surging Las Vegas Raiders, but they have the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks (twice) and the 49ers in the final month of the season. While missing the playoffs is on the Bingo card, McVay said it’s been a challenging start to the season — and he wouldn’t want it any other way. “A lot of people are afraid to put themselves out there, give everything that you got towards something and if you fall short, you feel that pit in your gut and God dang does it get you,” McVay told reporters this week. “It gets you good, but it’s all about the response. “I’m excited to be on this journey with this group. I love the men in this locker room. I love our coaching staff. I love the staff and our ownership group. I just want to do my part to try to influence and affect positive changes. These represent opportunities to be what you say. I see better than I hear, and talk is cheap. I want us to be able to move forward the right way, go back to work and be solution-oriented.” Hall of Fame offensive lineman Will Shields played for the Kansas City Chiefs when the Raiders were the big bully on the block. Back then, as a young rookie, Shields was blocking for fellow Hall of Famer Marcus Allen as the running back took it to his former team, the Raiders. So, Shields, recently added to the Hall of Fame selection committee, understands what Raiders Week means as the Chiefs head to Las Vegas in a battle of the 3-0 AFC West rivals. “Who do you pick as your nemesis? Who do you pick as the gold standard that you want to be better than? I think that’s what happened, especially in the 1970s and 80s,” Shields told me. “Those were the teams you wanted to be like and beat up on – and show that you’re just as good. And that’s how you set up that mantra.” These heated AFC West rivals have been competing since 1960, with the Raiders owning the series in the ‘70s and ’80s before the Chiefs’ recent domination following Andy Reid’s arrival and Patrick Mahomes’ ascension. The Chiefs have also won 16 of the last 20 games and nine straight AFC West titles before the Denver Broncos won the AFC West last season. But in their shared history, this is the first time the Chiefs and Raiders have each begun the season with a 3-0 record. The two teams combined for nine wins last year, both missing the playoffs. However, the Chiefs rebounded nicely from a 6-11 record, with new addition Kenneth Walker III leading the way. And the Raiders surprised the league by going undefeated to start the year under new head coach Klint Kubiak, with 38-year-old Kirk Cousins expertly guiding the offense. So, Sunday’s game will serve as a real barometer for where Las Vegas stands amid its surprising start, just like the Raiders’ matchups with the Chiefs did decades ago. Raiders icon and Hall of Fame cornerback Michael Haynes told me he could count on a chess match twice a year facing the Chiefs during his time with the Raiders in the 80s. “Playing against them and doing really well, it was going to take coaches calling the right plays, everybody playing effectively and not letting them do what they’ve been doing (laughs),” Haynes told me. “They were going to come out and play their ‘A’ game, and they knew that’s what they were going to have to do to beat us.” That feeling is held by current Raiders stars, too. Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby enjoys matching up against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Crosby has sacked Mahomes five times, the most of any NFL player. “He knows what it is,” Crosby said. “It’s war — there’s no other words needed. It’s as simple as that. I can’t wait.” And as the Raiders gear up for war, former members of the Chiefs are excited to see what unfolds in Sunday’s game. “It’s pretty cool that it’s being revived,” Shields told me. “It gives someone an opportunity to play hard, beat up on each other and enjoy the banter back and forth. It’s not a mean-spirited rivalry, but you’re trying to control the AFC West.” Los Angeles Chargers safety Genesis Smith, a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft, turned heads with his two-interception performance against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills — part of five turnovers generated by the Bolts’ defense in their loss. Smith was part of an entire University of Arizona secondary selected in this year’s draft — a rare accomplishment for a college football school. The Wildcats joined LSU (2020) and The Ohio State University (2017) as the only schools to accomplish this feat. Along with Smith, Treydan Stukes (second round) and Dalton Johnson (fifth) went to the Raiders, while Michael Dansby went in the seventh round to the Seattle Seahawks. At 6-2 and 202 pounds, Smith tested well at the NFL Scouting Combine, posting a 42.5 vertical and a 10-foot, 8-inch broad jump. Smith finished with five career interceptions for the Wildcats. FOX Sports NFL draft analyst Rob Rang, who also works as a scout for the CFL’s B.C. Lions, evaluated Smith out of college and thinks the Chargers selected a mature, versatile playmaking safety who will continue to develop. “He’s an explosive athlete who tested really well, and you can see it on tape,” Rang told me. “He’s got range and that classic size. He’s got above-average size, speed and range at the free safety position. And it gives you an awful lot of flexibility for the coverages that you want to run with him.” Rang noted a little inconsistency in Smith’s tackling in his tape from college but says that’s something he can clean up if he’s willing to work on it at the next level. Rang said, off the field, Smith fits the Chargers’ profile of wanting mature athletes who handle their business away from the facility. “Talking to some of the scouts there, they just described him as really mature, on and off the field,” Rang told me. “I know with the Chargers that’s a big deal for them. They place a high priority on guys being high-character dudes.” 5. Denver Broncos The Rams dropped out of the top five with a road loss to the Broncos, who’ve picked up two straight impressive wins. Quarterback Bo Nix now has seven fourth-quarter comebacks and nine game-winning drives since the start of last season, which is the most in the NFL in that span. 4. Las Vegas Raiders Free-agent pickup linebacker Nakobe Dean has been the anchor of the Las Vegas defense, leading the team in tackles with 27. But he’s also tied for the league lead in fumbles with three. 3. Seattle Seahawks Sam Darnold surprisingly struggled in his return from injury with a two-interception performance against the Commanders. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to dominate, though, logging his third straight 120-plus-yard game to open the season. 2. San Francisco 49ers Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level, but will he have to complete passes to himself by the end of the year with this injury-plagued roster? Star wide receiver Mike Evans joined the ever-growing list of Niners receivers to go down with an injury in their Week 3 win over the Cardinals. 1. Kansas City Chiefs Kenneth Walker has made Mahomes’ job easier, and the defense is playing better than expected. Walker’s 442 scrimmage yards are the third-most in the league through the first three weeks. “He understands what’s going on. He needs to take care of the ball. There’s some things fundamentally where we can focus on and we’re going to continue to give him the ball, we trust him. We know that he’s going to work hard to do his part as well.” Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald on rookie running back Jadarian Price, who’s already lost two fumbles this season.