This Year’s Breakout Star Will Be … Tyler Shough? Why Scouts, Execs Like Saints QB

When we surveyed people around the NFL on which player could be the next Drake Maye or Jaxon Smith-Njigba and make a sudden leap in 2026, one common answer emerged. New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough was routinely mentioned by scouts and executives we spoke with as a rising star to watch this season. In fact, one NFL executive told us that there’s no young quarterback “better set up for success” than Shough, while a scout told us that he was the best rookie quarterback last season. There were also a pair of Chicago Bears standouts that people around the league have their eyes on this season as rising stars. So, let’s unpack what we’re hearing about potential breakout candidates this season. Ralph Vacchiano: Even the New Orleans Saints weren’t quite sure what they had in second-round quarterback Tyler Shough at the start of last season. But by the end of the year, it looked like they had found their quarterback of the future. He was also the best of the quarterback class of 2025, even though he made just nine starts. And some around the NFL think he should be even better in Year 2 since the Saints have surrounded him with a stellar supporting cast. “There is no young quarterback better set up for success than [Shough],” an NFL executive told me. “Kellen Moore is a brilliant offensive mind, for starters. And look what they surrounded him with. He already had [wide receiver Chris] Olave and [tight end Juwan] Johnson. And in the right hands, Travis Etienne is a terrific running back — way better than Alvin Kamara at this stage. “In a bad division, they could surprise some people. And his numbers could pop.” Things would have looked even better for Shough if it wasn’t for the hamstring injury suffered by rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, a player the executive told me “might be the best receiver in the draft.” He’s out at least the first four weeks of the season, and he could be sidelined until mid-October, according to some reports. “That’s a blow for sure,” one NFC scout told me. “But I think there’s still enough there for Shough to grow. Look at what he did last year. He’s got a much better team around him now.” Vacchiano: The Saints were 6-11 last year, but that was enough to finish just two games out of first place (and the playoffs). Shough completed 67.6% of his passes for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. He showed off a little mobility too (186 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns). “I don’t think there was a better rookie quarterback last year,” the scout told me. “Maybe [Giants quarterback Jaxson] Dart will be better because he’s a real true dual-threat quarterback. But Shough has the ability to be an outstanding passer. And he’s certainly in the right hands.” And as Shough showed promise toward the end of last season, the executive I spoke with expects him to take a step forward in 2026 now that he’s spent a year in Moore’s offense. “He was good at everything. But mostly he was poised and efficient and really ran that offense well without a lot of mistakes,” the executive told me. “Moore will push him more this season, and I think he’s up to the task.” Eric D. Williams: Shough was a pleasant surprise for the Saints in the second half of the 2025 season, and talent evaluators I spoke with expect him to take another jump in his development in 2026. Shough, who was taken in the second round of last year’s draft and was the third quarterback taken behind Cam Ward and Dart, lost the training camp battle with Spencer Rattler before becoming the starting quarterback for the final games. As Shough went 5-4 as a starter, one talent evaluator I spoke with noted one area he grew in as his rookie season progressed. “Shough took a large leap last year in the last quarter of the season handling pocket pressure,” an NFL senior talent evaluator told me. “I think a full offseason with Kellen Moore will pay more dividends. A strong offensive line, nice receiving options and a proven offensive coach puts him in a great situation.” A longtime NFL scout, meanwhile, noted that the 26-year-old’s seven years in college should help him even more in 2026. “He is an experienced college QB who is coupled with a good player caller in the head coach,” the scout told me. “He made a jump in the last part of the season, and I expect that to continue. The head coach will play to his strengths.” Williams: During Shough’s final year in college, Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm got an up-close view of what his quarterback could do at the next level. In a collegiate career marred by injuries at Oregon and Texas Tech, Shough transferred to Louisville for his final college season, looking to reestablish himself as an NFL prospect. “For us, when we took him out of the portal, he wasn’t one of the hot names at all,” Brohm told me. “He was somebody who had been injured and kind of gone through some ups and downs – been a starter, been benched – whether it was due to injury or whatever. And I think he wanted one last chance to show what he was made of. “It was a great fit. We wanted a guy who was hungry and wanted to make one year work. He wanted to prove he was durable. And when we researched it, when he got hurt a lot of times, it was because of designed runs. I told him we’re not going to do that; we’re going to run more of an NFL system here. We can work around that and get it to our running backs, and that’s what we did. He lasted all year.” Louisville provided a dream scenario for Shough. He completed 63% of his passes for 3,195 yards, with 23 touchdowns and just six interceptions, leading the Cardinals to a 9-4 record. “He was durable,” Brohm said. “He did a great job and played well in games. He was a good leader, had a good arm. He’s a natural leader and guys liked him. He was very approachable; he played hard and tough, and had grit. And when things didn’t go well, he didn’t point the finger at anybody. He just had a natural way to lead. He had really good qualities and intangibles that carried over to his talent and skill.” Shough also helped his draft ascent at the combine, throwing the ball with zip during quarterback drills and running a 4.63-second, 40-yard time. Brohm said he wasn’t surprised by the success Shough had in his rookie season and expects him to have a solid NFL career. “I had a feeling that whoever took him was going to really like what they got,” Brohm told me. “And I think that definitely showed through in the first year of his NFL career. He’s in a good system. It’s always great to start the year not as the starter, but as the backup. Which I thought was great because I knew maybe they wouldn’t perform well, and then when that happens midway through the year, everyone’s clamoring for him. And he stepped in and showed what he’s made of. So, I was very happy for him. He earned it and I think he’ll do great from here on.” Vacchiano: Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson has had a knack over the years of turning his offensive players into dangerous weapons. And he has two more in the pipeline in Chicago that might be ready to break out. An NFC scout told me that he thinks wide receiver Luther Burden III and tight end Colston Loveland are going to become “elite” players under Johnson’s guidance, and it could happen as early as this season — though that depends on how much Johnson features them in what could be a very diverse offensive attack. “I actually think Burden is going to end up as their No. 1 receiver ahead of Rome Odunze,” the scout told me. “He’s got way better hands and is more reliable. Odunze is more explosive, probably, but at some point you lean on the guy who can make more plays. That’s Burden. He’s got great hands and strength. “And Loveland is right there with him. Johnson loves to rely on his tight ends too, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities. And you saw down the stretch last year what he can do with them.” Loveland, the 10th overall pick in last year’s draft, did go off late last season after a very slow start. He caught just 11 passes for 116 yards in the first six games before he had his breakout. He was truly elite in his final four games, though — including two in the playoffs — when he had 28 catches for 378 yards and two touchdowns. Burden, meanwhile, put up only average numbers (47-652-2), but he also was only the target of 10.6% of Williams’ passes. Considering he caught 78.3% of the balls thrown his way, that target share surely will increase. “I’m telling you, Johnson is going to lean on those two,” the scout said. “Let the defenses target Rome. Those are the two guys that will kill you.”