Are The Phillies The Dodgers’ Biggest Challenger? We Examine The NL Post-Deadline

One week after the MLB Trade Deadline, one key contender will show off its new-look lineup on national TV. The National League is still chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Milwaukee Brewers will begin the week with the best record in baseball, but Los Angeles won the deadline by adding two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline. The Philadelphia Phillies, who are in action on FS1 against the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday, did their part to try to keep up. Philly has rearranged its lineup and defensive alignment to accommodate second baseman Luis Arraez, who has slotted in as the Phillies’ cleanup hitter so far. Will it make a difference, though? Our MLB writers break down some of the biggest questions in the NL, as well as those surrounding the teams facing off in St. Louis on Monday night. 1. What’s your biggest takeaway one week after the Trade Deadline? Deesha Thosar: Even all these days later, with Tarik Skubal’s first start as a Dodger done and dusted, it remains incredible that the reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner was traded to the reigning back-to-back champions. FanGraphs increased Los Angeles’ chance of winning the World Series by 6% after the deal was completed. It was an unprecedented move that changed the landscape leading up to the stretch run – as well as the ongoing labor battle between the league and the players’ union. Amid all the fury and objection to the Dodgers firing up the Death Star, they’ve gone 3-7 in their last 10 games. Los Angeles finally won on Sunday, snapping a seven-game losing streak. Edwin Diaz looks lost. The pitching is actually a problem. The offense has been sliding over the last month. And yet, we still expect them to win the NL pennant, right? It’s just that now, the Skubal trade looks more like a necessity than it did a week ago. Rowan Kavner: Good for Boston for pushing the chips in, despite the risk involved. It’s certainly possible (and perhaps even likely, given the prospects that switched hands) that we look back at the trade that saw catcher Adley Rutschman go from Baltimore to Boston a few years from now and wonder how in the world Baltimore managed to get that kind of return. But if Rutschman ends up being the difference in the Red Sox winning a World Series championship this year, isn’t that worth it? There’s something to be said about a front office demonstrating to its players how much it believes in a team at the deadline. The trade for Rutschman — who just started his rehab assignment by reaching base three times on Saturday — is evidence of that and should help the Red Sox continue building on their momentum. 2. What team is best-equipped to beat the Dodgers? Thosar: In the NL, I’ll go with the Phillies. If we’re talking about the World Series matchup, I’ll go with the Yankees. My reasoning for both of these picks comes down to pitching. Philly has Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzardo as a formidable top three in its starting rotation. New York already has Gerrit Cole, Cam Schlittler and Max Fried going strong, and Carlos Rodon is working his way back to the rotation. These are October-ready staffs that other contenders, including the Dodgers, who don’t know when Shohei Ohtani will pitch again, should be envious of, and they’re all arms that can beat anybody. Kavner: The Phillies (despite how they’re playing lately) and Cubs (who just swept the Dodgers in Chicago) stand out most to me as the biggest threat to the Dodgers’ three-peat, if either can get the Dodgers in a short series when the depth of L.A.’s rotation won’t be as big of a factor and more randomness can come into play. If I had to choose one, I guess I’d lean toward Philadelphia based on what we saw last October. That NLDS was a lot closer than the Dodgers’ 3-1 series victory might have indicated. Having starting pitchers Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo available in a short series gives them a chance against anybody, and the addition of Luis Arraez adds an important element to an offense that has struggled to reach base consistently. The problem, of course, is that the Phillies would likely have to get through a wild-card round, meaning they wouldn’t be able to set their rotation up in an ideal fashion, and the drop-off is steep after their top three arms. But if the Phillies could steal a game in which Sánchez, Wheeler or Luzardo aren’t pitching, they’d at least give themselves a chance at an upset. But they have to get into the playoffs first. I think the Cubs — with an MVP contender in center fielder PeteCrow-Armstrong plus lineup depth behind him, excellent defense and now pitching reinforcements at the deadline — will have a better shot at knocking off the Dodgers than the Brewers. As we saw in last year’s NLCS, Milwaukee lacked the star power to contend on the biggest stage against L.A. And even with Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski reaching an entirely different level this year, I don’t see that changing for a team that ranks last in MLB in home runs despite its continued regular season dominance. 3. The Phillies went out of their way to accommodate Luis Arraez at the trade deadline. Did they do enough to establish themselves as a legitimate threat to Los Angeles? Thosar: The Phillies are definitely a threat to the Dodgers on paper now, but they have to actually show it. I like the impact Arraez already has had on the Phillies clubhouse. He’s bringing a new competitive energy that seemed to be missing from a run-it-back Phillies roster that looked stale at times. But the defensive re-alignments are concerning in a short playoff series, where we’ve seen the Dodgers use it to their advantage. Los Angeles exploited the Yankees’ issues with poor fundamentals in the 2024 Fall Classic, and there’s reason to believe the Dodgers will again wait for a team with brutal defensive metrics, like the Phillies, to step on their own feet. Kavner: If they get into October, they will be among the Dodgers’ biggest threats. Obviously, they have to play better baseball down the stretch for that to happen. They entered Sunday in one of the final wild-card spots, just a game ahead of the Padres, with an offense that ranks 28th in OBP and 23rd in OPS, plus a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA. Their deadline additions should help in both facets. Arraez is already providing the offensive boost that made him such an attractive piece that the Phillies were willing to rearrange their entire defense to accommodate his addition. And yet, their play lately has been … rather inauspicious. The depth of their lineup is still suspect even after the Arraez trade; they didn’t add a depth starter; and deadline bullpen additions Brooks Raley and Caleb Kilian, who is already hurt, have gotten off to shaky starts. Still, I think the acquisitions will be beneficial moves. Kyle Schwarber’s August power outage hasn’t helped matters, but Sunday was a step in the right direction. 4. Are the Cardinals close to competing in the NL Central as early as 2027? Thosar: Realistically, it looks more like 2027 will be a bridge year for the Cardinals, with their true contention window lining up for 2028. We could see St. Louis become highly competitive by late 2027, particularly if they give their younger prospects some runway down the stretch. The rest of the NL Central is just too far ahead of the Cardinals this year and next to suggest they can truly capture the division title. That gap can always be closed by health, which plays a huge factor in any division race, and impending offseason moves. But I don’t see the Cardinals getting truly aggressive until 2028. Kavner: Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has done a terrific job rebuilding the farm system, but the Brewers aren’t going anywhere. And while the Cubs have a ton of impending free agents, their nucleus of Crow-Armstrong, shortstop Dansby Swanson, third baseman Alex Bregman, second baseman Nico Hoerner and first baseman Michael Busch remains strong. So, I’m not counting on the Cardinals to contend for the NL Central next year unless they make some significant pitching additions in free agency. But they could absolutely be a wild-card team next season, and they’re making the right strides toward contending in the near future. We’ll have to see how some of the arms on the farm continue to develop.