MLB Second-Half Storylines: 10 Big Questions That Will Shape The Stretch Run

The All-Star break is over, and with it, the excuses. Teams have roughly two weeks before the Aug. 3 trade deadline to decide whether they’re buying, selling or holding. Surprise contenders have to figure out if their first-half magic was real, bubble teams have to decide which direction to turn and teams in the cellar need to have honest conversations about the future of their franchise. The possibility of reigning American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal becoming available could shape the entire deadline. Plus, all the division races outside the NL West remain separated by only a handful of games. The AL MVP and Cy Young races are getting spicy, and the defending champions are dealing with uncertainty surrounding Shohei Ohtani’s health. There’s plenty to watch for as the second half of the season gets underway. Here are 10 questions to consider as we approach the stretch run. Rowan Kavner: The Dodgers announced last Friday that Shohei Ohtani would not be making his scheduled pitching start that night due to continued irritation in his left knee and would also miss the All-Star Game. A few hours later, he homered. On that Friday, manager Dave Roberts also announced that Ohtani would be getting his knee drained a couple of days after the team’s final game of the first half. Of course, he homered in that Sunday game as well. Ohtani said his aching knee bothers him more when he pitches than when he hits, which seems clear after he launched four home runs in his final six games before the break. On the mound, meanwhile, his 0.74 ERA after his first 10 starts is up to 1.79 on the season after he allowed 14 runs (12 earned) over his last four starts. The Dodgers are hopeful that the minor knee procedure will have their two-way star feeling better for the stretch run both at the plate and on the mound, but it’s obviously something to monitor. As a hitter, Ohtani ranks third in the National League in OPS. As a pitcher, he ranks second in the NL in ERA among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 75 innings. He is cruising toward winning his fifth MVP Award — as long as he stays healthy. Keeping Ohtani upright has to be the Dodgers’ top priority as they look to three-peat. Deesha Thosar: The answer to that question depends on whether Detroit believes it’s a contender, not a pretender. The Tigers (44-52) enter the second half 3.5 games behind the final AL wild-card spot, with six teams in front of them. Since there’s so much parity in the AL, it’s not a stretch for the Tigers to convince themselves that they could make a push for the wild card. But, even if they do, does this team have legitimate hope beyond an early elimination? Detroit would be passing on an enormous prospect haul for Skubal, who is unlikely to re-sign with the Tigers in free agency this winter, just for a wild card or ALDS exit. Even though the Tigers have surged since June, Skubal holds way too much value for the Tigers to mess this one up. Skubal has repeatedly said he wants to stay in Detroit and believes the team is better than how it performed through the majority of the first half. But, whether he wants it or not, contenders will be clamoring for a potential Skubal trade, making this one of the biggest storylines of the deadline. Kavner: If the season ended today, there’s no question who would win the National League Cy Young Award. The Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski just wrapped up one of the all-time most overpowering first halves of an MLB season. He leads all qualified pitchers in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and opponents’ batting average, and no one is even within striking distance. Misiorowski is the only qualified starter with an ERA under 2.00 … and it’s 1.62. He’s holding opponents to a .148 batting average, more than 40 points lower than the next closest qualified NL starter (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, .190). The Miz’s 167 strikeouts are also 23 more than Cristopher Sánchez, who ranks second in the NL in the category. If Misiorowski keeps this pace, he’ll finish the year with the second-highest strikeout rate over the course of a full season in MLB history (not including the shortened 2020 season). The question, of course, is if he can hold up. The 24-year-old has already thrown 111 innings, his most in any professional season, and the Brewers skipped his final start of the first half due to arm fatigue. It sounds like he’ll be ready to go out of the break, but his health will be crucial for the Brewers’ chances as they try to make a World Series run. Thosar: David Stearns fielded questions about the Mets being sellers all the way back in May, though the president of baseball operations wasn’t yet ready to admit that the team he rebuilt in the offseason was a dud. He figured there was plenty of time for the club to turn it around. Now, just over two weeks out from the trade deadline, New York’s position is explicitly clear. The Mets (40-57) are 16 games behind the first-place Braves in the NL East, and 12 games out of the last NL wild-card spot, with everyone except the Rockies in front of them. The best they can hope for in the second half is showing some form of promise for 2027, and that starts with how Stearns handles his trade chips. Pitchers Freddy Peralta, Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter and outfielder Tyrone Taylor are free agents after this season, and we can throw 33-year-old starter Clay Holmes into that group because he has a $12 million player option that he’s expected to decline. Beyond that, players under team control for at least another year include Luke Weaver and Huascar Brazoban, and both relievers have been excellent this season. Those hoping the Mets will deal a bat or two from their underperforming lineup, keep dreaming. No one on the offense is in a walk year, and since the front office is just trying to acquire as many top prospects as possible this deadline, dangling bats like Mark Vientos and Brett Baty is not a recipe for a solid return. All eyes will be on Stearns as he navigates a second consecutive nightmare Mets season. Kavner: Entering the break, there were only three American League teams and four National League teams more than four games out of a playoff spot. The lack of obvious sellers — and the lack of premier rentals on those obvious sellers — could make this a rather dull deadline when it comes to star power switching hands. Then again, who knows? With more than two weeks before the deadline, a lot can change. Luis Arraez, a rental in San Francisco, seems like an obvious candidate to be dealt. Will the Giants go further than that and move any of their long-term deals (Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee)? And what about the Angels? Will new interim general manager John Mozeliak convince owner Arte Moreno that it’s time to blow this thing up? Starters José Soriano and Reid Detmers, outfielder Jo Adell or shortstop Zach Neto — all of whom are under team control beyond this season — could command the type of prospect haul that could give their farm system a needed overhaul. Or does one of these teams on the bubble decide now is the time to take advantage of a seller’s market? The Nationals are four games back of a playoff spot now. The Red Sox, Twins and Tigers are all trending in the right direction, but they’re still under .500. All of them have pieces that could turn a contender into a champion. And you never know what Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has up his sleeve. Thosar: It’s clear the Yankees no longer stubbornly believe in shortstop Anthony Volpe as much as they used to. In May, they demoted him to Triple-A, choosing to stick with the standout performance of Jose Caballero at shortstop at the time. Volpe soon returned when Caballero was sidelined by injury, but now that Caballero is back and healthy, Volpe has seen his playing time decrease dramatically of late. To close out the first half, Volpe started in just one of four games in an important series against the Tampa Bay Rays, who lead the AL East. Then he started in just one of three games against the Washington Nationals. For the fourth consecutive season, Volpe is sporting an OPS+ in the 80s. His performance at the plate has been below league average long enough, and the Yankees might just be signaling that they’re ready to move on. It will be fascinating to see how they solve their shortstop problem, because it’s not like Caballero has been much better (94 OPS+) at the plate. Beyond outside additions, the Yankees could promote their No. 1 prospect, George Lombard Jr., who’s on his way back from injury. Just before the break, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said Lombard “might be a choice at some point.” Kavner: The Red Sox have been missing their best pitcher (Garrett Crochet) and hitter (Roman Anthony) for most of the season. Yankees superstar Aaron Judge has been out since the start of June with a stress fracture in his rib, and Braves starter Max Fried has been out even longer with an elbow bone bruise. The Dodgers have jumped out to their hot start despite getting just one start from Blake Snell, seven starts from Tyler Glasnow and seven appearances from Edwin Díaz. They’ve also been without catcher Will Smith since early June. The list of injured standouts expected back sometime in the second half goes on and on: Jose Ramírez (Guardians); Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider and Robert Suarez (Braves); Corey Seager (Rangers); Byron Buxton (Twins); Nick Kurtz (A’s); Corbin Burnes (Diamondbacks); Nick Pivetta (Padres); Kyle Harrison (Brewers); and basically the Cubs’ whole rotation. The return of some of these star talents could make all the difference in playoff races and postseason runs. Thosar: With the Yankees’ reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge sidelined indefinitely by a rib injury, the race is wide open in the second half. Top contenders for the award include Yordan Alvarez, Ben Rice, and Junior Caminero. Alvarez enters the second half leading the majors in on-base percentage (.426), slugging (.633), and OPS (1.059). The Astros slugger leads the AL in hits (111), home runs (31) and RBIs (70). That’s impressive, but it’s not like he’s running away with it. Rice is right behind Alvarez with 29 home runs, and he’s been one of the main reasons the Yankees’ offense has remained competitive without Judge. Caminero was hit on his left hand by a pitch in the All-Star Game, and X-rays came back negative, but how he bounces back will greatly dictate the race. Caminero, who went on an incredible streak of 11 home runs in 11 games, enters the second half with the third-best OPS (.927) in the AL, behind Alvarez and Rice. Kavner: What’s the bigger surprise, that the Phillies — after a 9-19 start — are already just two games back of the first-place Braves? Or that the Marlins are nipping at both of their heels? As recently as May 22, the Braves held a double-digit lead in the NL East after storming out of the gates in a turnaround season. On June 9, they were still up nine games in the division. One month later, this is suddenly one of the most interesting division battles in baseball — and not only because of the Phillies’ surge. The Marlins have the best record in baseball since the start of June at 26-11. The Phillies are 24-14 over that stretch and 45-24 since interim manager Don Mattingly took over. The Braves, meanwhile, are 15-20 since the start of June and have opened the door for their division foes. As it stands, the Dodgers and Brewers are the only teams leading their respective divisions by more than three games. There will be plenty of interesting battles down the stretch. Thosar: Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras is having a career year at the plate, and he’s a major reason Boston has turned around its ugly start to the season. His .921 OPS is ranked fourth in the AL, and he’s been a stabilizing force in the Red Sox lineup amid a tough personal year due to the Venezuela earthquakes back in his hometown. Throughout it all, the Red Sox have moved up the standings, going from dead in the water at 32-46 to a 14-2 stretch that included a nine-game winning streak, to entering the break just a half-game out of the final AL wild-card spot. While Boston’s turnaround is real in the standings, the jury is still out on whether it’s sustainable. Starter Sonny Gray (2.54 ERA) and closer Aroldis Chapman (2.20 ERA) have anchored their successful run, but the Red Sox are still hitting the fewest home runs in baseball this season. And the AL has only five teams above .500, so small gains can look bigger than they are. Whether the front office commits to buying instead of selling Gray and Chapman in the next couple of weeks will be the real verdict on whether this is a genuine turnaround or a well-timed hot streak.