2026 NFL Schedule Release: Who’s Most Likely To Go From Worst To First?

The New England Patriots finished in last place in the AFC East in 2023 and ‘24, winning just four games each season. But they engineered a dramatic turnaround in 2025, exploding for 14 wins in the regular season to secure their first division title since 2019. New England’s rags-to-riches storyline was one of the biggest of the season, but it was hardly unprecedented. In fact, the NFL has a rich history of teams rising from the ashes in a single year. The 2025 Patriots, who went on to reach the Super Bowl, were the 26th NFL team since 2002 to go from worst to first in a single season. Who will be the 2026 version of the Patriots? Which team has the best chance to go from last to first in its division — and potentially make a deep postseason run? In descending order, I rank the fourth-place finishers from last season by the likelihood they will win their division in 2026: Not only do the Cardinals still have major roster issues — they don’t have a clear QB1 — but they also happen to play in the toughest division in football. The Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl last season. The Los Angeles Rams, who had the league’s best offense in 2025, reached the NFC Championship Game (where they lost to Seattle). The San Francisco Niners have won at least 12 games in three of the past four seasons. Arizona has some exciting offensive skill players to build around, including running back Jeremiyah Love, the No. 3 overall pick in the draft. The team took a flier on Miami QB Carson Beck in the third round. New head coach Mike LaFleur, the former Rams offensive coordinator, brings hope of an optimistic future. But the Cardinals’ chances of competing for the NFC West crown in 2026 are unrealistic. On paper, the Jets have had a strong offseason. They upgraded at quarterback with Geno Smith. WR1 Garrett Wilson has pass-catching help in first-round tight end Kenyon Sadiq and second-round receiver Omar Cooper Jr. No. 2 overall pick David Bailey provides pass-rush juice on the edge. The floor of the secondary has been raised with the additions of five-time All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and second-round pick D’Angelo Ponds as well. But challenging for the AFC East title is a huge reach. The Bills still have Josh Allen. Mike Vrabel’s off-the-field issues could be a distraction for the Patriots, but New England still has one of the best teams in the NFL. The Jets have a great chance of climbing out of the cellar in this division, though, if for no other reason than the Dolphins look like the least competitive team in the AFC East. Brighter days could be ahead in Las Vegas. The Raiders have the present and future secured at the quarterback position in Kirk Cousins and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Their revamped defense still has five-time Pro Bowl edge Maxx Crosby in the fold, as his trade to Baltimore was nixed. So Vegas should be more competitive in 2026. But the AFC West features three playoff-caliber teams, including the Denver Broncos — who were a win away from the Super Bowl last season — and a Kansas City Chiefs team that’s getting Patrick Mahomes back. The Raiders making noise in this division would be a surprise. With star quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow healthy for the Ravens and Bengals, respectively, the Browns’ chances of competing for the AFC North title are unlikely. But if Cleveland can get competent play from the quarterback position — Deshaun Watson has emerged as the favorite to start over Shedeur Sanders — this becomes a team to watch. The wide receiver and offensive line rooms have been revamped. Plus, the Browns still boast one of the best defenses in football. The Titans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic. The top of the AFC South is somewhat fragile. For the Jacksonville Jaguars, a first-place schedule and losing key starters like linebacker Devin Lloyd and running back Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency could set the team back in Year 2 under Liam Coen. The Houston Texans, meanwhile, still have questions on offense, despite having arguably the NFL’s best defense. With new coach Robert Saleh, Tennessee has raised its floor substantially. Its defense has a chance to be good, particularly on the defensive line. The cast of pass-catchers around QB Cam Ward is respectable. If Ward makes a big Year 2 jump, the Titans become a wild card. It’s a new age in New York with John Harbaugh. The Super Bowl-winning coach has inherited a talented roster that’s added two top-10 picks (LB Arvell Reese, OL Francis Mauigoa). Harbaugh has also brought in two former Ravens — All-Pro fullback Patrick Ricard, tight end Isaiah Likely— who figure to be pivotal in setting a new culture. The Philadelphia Eagles are a candidate to step back in 2026. For the Dallas Cowboys, their defense is a bit of a wild card. The Washington Commanders are trying to rediscover their 2024 magic. With one of the NFL’s best coaches, the Giants could be in the mix for the NFC East crown — as long as QB Jaxson Dart makes a second-year jump. No division is more wide open than the NFC South, which had three eight-win teams in 2025. If quarterback Tyler Shough takes a step in Year 2, the possibilities open up for New Orleans. No. 8 overall pick Jordyn Tyson is expected to be a top-end wide receiver alongside star Chris Olave, and free-agent acquisition Travis Etienne Jr. is one of the better running backs in the NFL. The Lions are too talented to finish in last place in the NFC North again. Sure, they weren’t even bad in 2025 — they were above .500 with nine wins — but with a fourth-place schedule, it feels inevitable that Dan Campbell & Co. will get back into NFC contention with a double-digit win season. The Chicago Bears, who won the division last year, could cool off a bit with a first-place schedule. The Green Bay Packers face uncertainty regarding the health of edge Micah Parsons (ACL tear in December) and tight end Tucker Kraft (ACL tear in November) and the void created by receiver Romeo Doubs’ departure in free agency. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t even sure who their starting quarterback will be. Watch out for the Lions.