Seven Teams, Seven Slow Starts. What’s Behind MLB’s Most Surprising Struggles?

Mets reliever Luke Weaver got Byron Buxton swinging at a changeup expertly placed below the zone to end Wednesday’s game and immediately looked toward the sky, as if his prayers had finally been answered. At least for one night, all of Queens could finally exhale. More than two weeks after beating Arizona to move to 7-4, the Mets finally got their eighth win of the season. The 12-game losing streak, the team’s longest since 2002, was finally over. But the malaise continues for another supposed National League East contender. Philadelphia now holds the longest active losing streak in Major League Baseball, with the skid reaching nine games on Wednesday. The Phillies now have an abysmal 8-17 record and have a minus-50 run differential, by far the worst mark in MLB. The Phillies share the dubious distinction of sharing the worst record in baseball with the Royals (8-17), a team many expected to contend for an AL Central title. Meanwhile, things haven’t started much better for the Boston Red Sox, who are 9-15; or the defending AL champion Toronto Blue Jays, who are 10-14; or the Houston Astros, who are 10-16 and in last place in the AL West; or the Mariners, who are 11-15 after coming one game away from reaching the World Series last year. So, what exactly is going on with the slow starts for these playoff hopefuls? And what hope do they have of turning things around the rest of the way? Let’s dig in. JUMP TO: NYM | PHL | HOU | KC | BOS | TOR | SEA New York Mets (8-16, 4th in NL East) Preseason playoff odds (FanGraphs): 79.5% Current playoff odds: 42.3% Biggest issue: The offense Mets pitchers had a 5.64 ERA during the losing streak, starters Kodai Senga and David Peterson are a combined 0-6 with a 6.86 ERA this year and uncharacteristic defensive lapses from veteran Francisco Lindor haven’t helped matters, but the lack of hitting from a team with the second-highest payroll in the sport has been the biggest culprit for the team’s downturn. The Mets have scored the fewest runs and logged the lowest on-base percentage in the sport, and they have the worst slugging percentage in the National League. Among the nine Mets players with at least 50 plate appearances this year, Francisco Alvarez is the only one hitting above league average. That’s not what president of baseball operations David Stearns expected when he paid top dollar to reshape the roster this winter. Speaking of…. Another problem: The new guys Bo Bichette, who just signed a three-year, $126 million deal to bring offense and bat-to-ball skills to the hot corner in Queens, has a .545 OPS. Jorge Polanco, who played a vital role in helping the Mariners reach the ALCS for the first time in 24 years last season, has a .532 OPS and is already on the injured list. Marcus Semien, who was already showing offensive decline the last two years in Texas, has a .600 OPS. If that wasn’t bad enough, the player Semien was traded for, Brandon Nimmo, is now leading the Rangers in hits and on-base percentage. The Mets called up prospect Carson Benge to start in the outfield, and he has the second-lowest wRC+ among all qualified MLB hitters this year. Luis Robert Jr. has looked the best of the team’s newcomers, but his .666 OPS is still below league average and hardly enough to make up for the club’s many offensive shortcomings. Making matters worse, the club’s new closer, Devin Williams, is 0-1 with a 9.95 ERA. His “airbender” changeup has gotten hit troublingly hard — opponents are batting .467 against the pitch. Williams had a chance to end the Mets’ skid four days ago, but he blew a 1-0 lead in the ninth inning against the Cubs. His next time out, he suffered the loss Tuesday night when the Twins jumped on him in a tie game in the ninth. When the Mets finally snapped the losing streak Wednesday, it was Weaver who was called upon for the save. What hope is there: Juan Soto is back. The Mets were 4-4 and had a .705 team OPS when Soto suffered a calf injury on April 3. In the nearly three weeks without him, the offense tallied a .566 OPS, by far the worst in baseball during that stretch. Soto returned, and the losing streak was immediately snapped. They’re now 5-4 when he’s in the lineup. The problem? They also lost Lindor to a calf issue in Tuesday’s win. He’s due for an MRI at a time when the Mets badly need their offensive stars to get on a roll. Philadelphia Phillies (8-17, 5th in NL East) Preseason playoff odds (FanGraphs): 68.3% Current playoff odds: 37.1% Biggest issue: Lineup depth Kyle Schwarber has eight home runs, tied for the fifth-most in MLB. Bryce Harper has an .861 OPS and is hitting 35% better than league average, right in line with his norms. Behind the team’s top two sluggers, though, it’s bleak. The right-handed hitters in the lineup have a combined .584 OPS, tied for the worst mark in MLB. Relatedly, as a team the Phillies rank last in every slash line category against left-handed pitchers (.178/.264/.282). Overall, the Phillies are 29th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage and runs scored and 27th in slugging, a steep dropoff for a team that ranked fourth in OPS last season. Alec Bohm is the worst qualified hitter in baseball by wRC+. Veterans Trea Turner, Bryson Stott and Adolis Garcîa have also been well below league-average hitters. Things have gotten bad enough that rookie Felix Reyes was batting clean-up against Shota Imanaga and the Cubs on Tuesday. Rookie Justin Crawford has been a bright spot in a disappointing lineup, but the decision to primarily run it back with the same nucleus does not look especially prudent right now. Another problem: The starting pitching You don’t get the worst run differential in MLB simply by having an underperforming offense. The Phillies also rank 27th in ERA. The starters have been particularly underwhelming, producing a 5.37 ERA that ranks 28th in MLB, a 1.58 WHIP that ranks 29th and a .300 opponents’ batting average, which is the worst in baseball. Cristopher Sanchez is the only Phillies starter with an ERA under 4.40. What hope is there: The starting pitching should get better, and the obscene batting averages on balls in play should start to regress to the mean. Phillies hitters have the third-lowest BABIP in MLB, but even more staggering is the .357 BABIP that Phillies pitchers are surrendering, by far the highest mark in MLB. It’s even more surprising to see that considering Phillies pitchers have actually surrendered the lowest hard-hit rate in MLB. Phillies pitchers also have the biggest difference between expected batting average allowed (.242) and actual batting average (.278) in MLB. Jesus Luzardo has an unseemly 6.91 ERA, but the underlying numbers suggest better days ahead. And, most importantly, Zack Wheeler is expected back this weekend. Houston Astros (10-16, 5th in AL West) Preseason playoff odds (FanGraphs): 33.5% Current playoff odds: 19.7% Biggest issue: The pitching — across the board Their starters have the worst ERA in the American League (5.86). But at least their relievers…uhhh, have the second-worst ERA in the AL (5.75). Unsurprisingly, the result is the worst team ERA in MLB (5.81). Houston pitchers have a 1.63 WHIP that is by far the worst mark in MLB (and even worse than last year’s Rockies pitchers). They’ve allowed the third-most hits, the second-most homers and the most walks — by far — in MLB. Not an ideal recipe for success. Another problem: So many injuries So, why is the pitching performing so poorly? Start with the injured list. The Astros have 16 players on the IL, the most in MLB. Ten of those players are pitchers, including three of their top starters in staff ace Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier and NPB standout Tatsuya Imai, their biggest signing of the offseason. The IL also includes six-time All-Star Josh Hader and starting shortstop Jeremy Peña, masking the team’s peculiar and seemingly incongruous roster construction that included more infielders than spots available. Right now, that’s a problem for another day, but the offseason moves look inauspicious in the early going. The Astros parted with two of their top prospects to acquire Mike Burrows from Pittsburgh; and he has a 6.75 ERA through five starts. Imai had a 7.27 ERA with nearly as many walks (11) as strikeouts (13) in his 8.2 innings before being sidelined with arm fatigue. The Astros also signed KBO standout Ryan Weiss, who has a 6.50 ERA. Bryan Abreu, who was expected to be the closer with Hader sidelined, is 0-2 with a 14.73 ERA. What hope is there: Yordan Alvarez is healthy and looks like the best hitter in baseball again. Alvarez leads the majors in nearly every offensive category, including hits, homers, RBI, on-base percentage and slugging. He’s leading an Astros offense that has been one of the best in MLB, a group that has seen much better production this year from a number of contributors, including Christian Walker (.863 OPS) and Cam Smith (.722). The offense will need to carry the group until the Astros’ injured pitchers can return, but Spencer Arrighetti (2-0, 2.45 ERA) and Peter Lambert (1-1, 3.27) have helped lift the rotation. And, like with the Phillies, the expected stats on the Astros’ pitching staff are better than what’s happening in reality. Houston’s .444 slugging percentage allowed, for example, is 56 points higher than the expected slugging percentage. That’s the largest margin in MLB. Opponents’ .324 BABIP against Houston is the second-highest mark in MLB, behind only the Phillies, suggesting some unluckiness thus far. Kansas City Royals (8-17, 5th in AL Central) Preseason playoff odds (FanGraphs): 44.7%Current playoff odds: 19.7% Biggest issue: The stars haven’t gotten going Among the team’s many issues to start the season, the Royals aren’t going to do much when Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia are league-average hitters, when 2024 All-Star Cole Ragans has a 6.00 ERA and when Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez each has an OPS that starts with a “5.” Witt still hasn’t homered, Pasquantino’s hitting .160 and Perez has the fifth-lowest wRC+ of any qualified MLB hitter. Jac Caglianone hasn’t been able to make up for the power outages elsewhere, hitting just one home run so far, and offseason additions Isaac Collins (.519 OPS) and Lane Thomas (.555) haven’t fixed the club’s perennial outfield production issues. As a team, the Royals rank 25th in OPS and have struggled to produce with scoring opportunities; their .549 OPS with runners in scoring position is the worst mark in MLB. Another problem: The bullpen The Royals rank 25th overall in team ERA, and the primary reason for that is a bullpen that is 2-8 with an MLB-worst 6.29 ERA (for context, the worst bullpen ERA last season belonged to the Nationals at 5.59). Kansas City’s relievers have converted just seven of their 13 save opportunities, and two-time All-Star Carlos Estévez has spent most of the year on the IL after his velocity was way down in one blow-up outing to start the season. Alex Lange, who has thrown more innings than any Kansas City reliever, is 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA. Lucas Erceg, who has filled in as the primary closer, has converted just five of his seven save opportunities and has an ERA over 5.00. So does Matt Strahm, one of their biggest offseason additions. What hope is there: It’s hard to envision Witt, Garcia, Pasquantino and Perez all performing below expectation long-term. Rookie Carter Jensen has been the team’s best hitter, and if he can keep that up once the rest of the group warms up, the offense should be in better shape. In addition, Seth Lugo (1.15 ERA) is still getting it done, and Michael Wacha had been great until his last start. Boston Red Sox (9-15, 5th in AL East) Preseason playoff odds (FanGraphs): 61.2%Current playoff odds: 36.2% Biggest issue: Lack of power at the plate The Red Sox are last in MLB in slugging percentage, expected slugging percentage and home runs, and they have the lowest OPS in the American League. They’ve been too passive at the plate — they’re 29th in zone swing percentage — and that’s especially been a problem for Roman Anthony, who has the fourth-lowest zone swing % in MLB. Anthony, who hit 42% better than league average as a rookie last year and started for Team USA in the WBC, has been a league average hitter this year and has just one home run and four RBI, and he’s now dealing with back tightness. Jarren Duran, a 2024 All-Star, is slashing .194/.266/.306, all career lows. After inexplicably failing to bring back Alex Bregman, Boston third basemen rank 29th in OPS. Caleb Durbin (.147/.238/.213) has been the worst qualified hitter in the AL by wRC+. Their shortstops aren’t much better at 27th, and Trevor Story (.192/.226/.303) has been the sixth-worst hitter in MLB by wRC+. Both are playing below replacement level this year. Another problem: The starting pitching Alex Cora put it simply: “For us to go to where we want to go, we have to pitch.” Boston’s rotation was viewed as one of the deepest in the game this year after adding Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez, and so far it hasn’t performed anywhere close to expectations. Red Sox starters rank 26th in ERA and 24th in WHIP and batting average against. Gray has the lowest strikeout rate of his career and is now out with a hamstring strain. Suárez has also seen his strikeout rate decline precipitously, and the master of soft contact is allowing the highest hard-hit rate of his career. Brayan Bello has an ERA over 6.00. Most glaringly, though, Cy Young hopeful Garrett Crochet has a 7.88 ERA through five starts. And to make matters worse, Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, who were on the rehab trail, are both currently shut down. What hope is there: The rotation is too deep and too talented for this to continue all year. Unless he’s seriously hurt, you have to expect Crochet to pick it back up soon. Suárez had two terrific starts before allowing four runs to the Yankees on Wednesday. The Red Sox are getting some more help with talented lefty Payton Tolle getting called up, and 24-year-old Connelly Early has been productive in the early going aside from allowing too many free passes. And at the plate, Willson Contreras has given the Red Sox everything they could have asked for, providing them a ton more value at first base than they had last season. Toronto Blue Jays (10-14, 4th in AL East) Preseason playoff odds (FanGraphs): 53%Current playoff odds: 37.4% Biggest issue: Injuries A year after basically everything went right in Toronto, nearly everything has gone wrong to start the 2026 campaign. Most obviously, many of the players they’re expecting to count on aren’t available. You could field a competitive rotation from the Blue Jays’ injured list. Rotation depth wasn’t supposed to be an issue after Toronto signed Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce this winter, but while the former has given everything the Blue Jays could have expected, the latter is now likely out for the year after undergoing ACL surgery. Shane Bieber, José Berríos, Bowden Francis and 2025 breakout star Trey Yesavage are also among the many starters the Blue Jays have been without to start the 2026 campaign. The injury bug has also bitten the position player side, as George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger and Anthony Santander are all also on the shelf. Another problem: Offensive regression You can’t blame all of the problems on injuries. Bo Bichette is gone, and the offensive players on the shelf had all regressed before going to the IL. Springer, after a resurgent age-35 season last year in which he finished seventh in MVP voting, was hitting .185 before going on the IL. Barger, coming off last year’s breakout, started the 2026 season 1-for-19. Kirk was hitting .150 through his first five games, and offseason addition Kazuma Okamoto has been a well below league-average hitter so far. The Blue Jays ranked first in on-base percentage and third in OPS last season; they currently rank 19th and 20th, respectively, in those categories. What hope is there: This is mostly a matter of getting healthy. Yesavage, Berríos, Springer and Barger are all expected back soon. Kirk and Bieber could be back next month. Cease has given the Blue Jays everything they could have envisioned when they gave him a $210 million contract, and Gausman has 35 strikeouts and just six walks in 28.1 innings. In addition, while the offense hasn’t performed nearly to the level it did last year, this is still one of the better teams in baseball at getting the bat on the ball. They may regret not doing more on the offensive side this winter, though. Seattle Mariners (11-15, 4th in AL East) Preseason playoff odds (FanGraphs): 80.9%Current playoff odds: 70.3% Biggest issue: Slow start for the stars The Mariners aren’t going to be successful when Cal Raleigh (93 wRC+), Julio Rodriguez (94) and Josh Naylor (61) are below-league-average hitters, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo are a combined 1-4 with a 4.63 ERA and closer Andrés Munoz has an ERA that starts with an “8”. Another problem: High whiffs, low slug The Mariners have the lowest zone contact rate in MLB and are tied for the second-most strikeouts, a problem that has plagued them in the past. That issue can be mitigated when the Mariners are slugging and homering the way they did last year, but they haven’t done that to this point. They rank 16th in home runs and 23rd in slugging, behind the Brewers and Guardians, and have struggled to convert when presented opportunities. They have a .210 batting average with runners in scoring position (27th in MLB). What hope is there: This is the team I’m least concerned about on this list, and the FanGraphs playoff odds reflect the same belief (playing in the AL West helps there, too). There has been some unluckiness to the lack of power — the Mariners are 11th in expected slugging percentage and ninth in barrel rate — and the big bats are starting to finally get going. Raleigh, who had two homers in his first 23 games, has homered in each of his last three games. Rodriguez is notorious for slow starts, and he entered Thursday on a seven-game hitting streak. Naylor had an abysmal start to the year, slashing .118/.193/.197 through his first 19 games, but has nine hits in his last 17 at-bats. The team’s overall whiff rate remains a problem, but it was an issue last year too and didn’t stop the Mariners from nearly making a run to the World Series. Brendan Donovan was off to an electric start before straining his groin, and he isn’t expected to be out long term, and top prospect Colt Emerson should help the offense at some point.  This should still be one of the best rotations in MLB, Emerson Hancock has looked terrific, and Bryce Miller will eventually be back to assist the rotation. In addition, while Muñoz has gotten hit hard, his velocity has held up, and he’s still generating a ton of whiffs. No reason to panic just yet.