NFL Confidential: How is Dexter Lawrence Trade Impacting Draft? Execs, Scouts Weigh in

Right before we were all set to submit our final mock drafts for the 2026 draft season, the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals decided they wanted to throw us a curveball and make a move that will have major ramifications for Thursday night’s festivities. The Giants now have two top-10 picks after acquiring the 10th overall selection from the Bengals for Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. While the trade was just agreed to on Saturday night, we’ve already learned how New York is potentially plotting to use its two top-10 picks — and it could lead to a surprise in the top five. Of course, the Giants-Bengals trade isn’t the only bit of draft news ahead of the first round on Thursday night. So, we surveyed our sources around the league on the latest about Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson and his draft status. Here’s what we’ve learned about the Giants’ draft plans, why the Bengals made the trade and what to expect for Simpson in the 2026 NFL Draft. *** Giant change in draft order could lead to another offensive pick in top five Ralph Vacchiano: A few days ago, it felt to many like a lock that the Giants were going to take a defensive player with the fifth overall pick of the NFL Draft. But now they have two picks in the top 10 for the second time in five years, after acquiring the 10th overall pick from the Bengals for Dexter Lawrence. They’ll almost certainly use one of them on a defensive player, but it’s not so clear what they’ll do with the fifth. “It has to change their thinking,” one NFL executive told me. “There are a few elite offensive players that didn’t look like a great fit for them, given how bad their defense has been and what we think Harbaugh wants to focus on. Now they can grab one at 5, and it’s possible they’ll still get the defensive player they wanted all along at 10.” It’s all speculation at the moment, but many NFL sources believe the Giants were focused on either Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles or Ohio State safety Caleb Downs at 10 — impact players, who could emerge as leaders on the Giants’ defense. Opinions were split on which player Harbaugh preferred. And many seem to believe that one, and maybe both, could still be there at 10. And that would open up some intriguing possibilities at No. 5. Much of the immediate speculation was on Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, whom an NFL scout told me last week “might be the best receiver in this draft when it’s all said and done.” He was considered to be one of the most “underrated” players in this year’s class, though he’s been rising in media mocks and is now likely considered a top-10 pick. The 6-foot-3, 203-pounder, who impressed scouts in his limited pro day workout on Friday, would give the Giants a dangerous 1-2 punch at receiver playing next to a healthy Malik Nabers. He’d also be insurance in case Nabers, who is recovering from a torn ACL, needs some time to regain his old form. “If [Tyson] is as good as I think he is, the Giants would be set on offense for the next few years,” the executive said. “[Quarterback] Jaxson Dart would have everything he needs.” Two other intriguing offensive possibilities for the Giants at No. 5 are Notre Dame running back Jeremyiah Love, Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate and Miami (Fla.) offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa (or whomever they rate as the top tackle in the draft). “The fifth pick gives them the option of probably one of the two best offensive playmakers in the draft or the top offensive lineman, and they need both,” the scout told me. “And then if they can land either Styles or Downs at 10, that’s a home run.” *** Why the 10th pick wasn’t worth a lot to the Bengals Vacchiano: The shock and surprise that the Bengals, of all teams, would give up the 10th overall pick in a trade was generally met with a touch of understanding. The way things appear to be set up on draft day, few seemed to think the draft was going to break the Bengals’ way. There is no defensive tackle worthy of anything close to a top-10 pick. The best edge rusher will very likely be gone, along with the top corner and probably the top linebacker, too. Nothing was locked in, of course, but they were facing a board where they might not find immediate help on defense, the place they needed it the most. “I think they knew they were in a really bad spot the way things were breaking,” an NFL assistant general manager told me. “They could get a really good player at 10, but probably not at a position they need. And they’re not looking at two to three years down the road. They obviously think they can make a run now.” The Bengals certainly have the offense to do that as long as quarterback Joe Burrow is healthy. But their offseason focus has been on rebuilding the statistically worst defense in the league. They brought in some help in free agency, like edge rusher Boye Mafe, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen and safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. But they were still looking for a true game-wrecker after losing Trey Hendrickson. Lawrence has a better chance of being that than anyone they thought they could get at No. 10. “They were going to have to trade down,” an NFC scout told me. “That’s the only thing that would’ve made sense, unless they just wanted to add another piece to their offense. That wasn’t going to help them. They are desperate to fix their defense. That’s why the 10th pick may be a really high price to pay, but it also made a lot of sense.” *** Is Ty Simpson a first-round pick? Opinions still mixed on where Alabama QB lands Eric D. Williams: With less than a week left and Ty Simpson’s draft stock seemingly rising, league sources I spoke with are still not sold that the Alabama quarterback will be a first-round pick. One NFL front office executive told me he doesn’t believe Simpson is a first-round talent. He identified the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers as potential fits. However, another league source familiar with the position believes a team could move up to secure Simpson’s services in the first round. “I could see someone trading up to 32 with the Seahawks so they can get a fifth-year option as a first-rounder,” the league source told me. “That fifth-year option would be nice. The Ravens traded up to get Lamar [Jackson] for that reason. Great move. “Ozzie Newsome had the courage to do it on the way out.” The league source went on to say he likes that Simpson played in a pro-style offense under the direction of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb at Alabama. However, the league source still has concerns with Simpson’s size (6-1, 212 pounds) and the fact that he only started in 15 games in college. “He is smooth,” the league source told me. “He sees the field well. He anticipates well. It’s easy to project him in the NFL because of the type of offense he ran in college. I’d be worried about playing him early though, since he hasn’t played in a lot of games. That’s cause for concern as a first-rounder for me.” The league source mentioned the Cardinals, Steelers, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys as potential landing spots. An NFL agent I spoke with, meanwhile, believes Simpson will be a second or third-round pick. “The only team I could see taking him in the first round [and it would be a very bad move] is Arizona,” the NFL agent told me. “The Cardinals have a bad roster. They should add more picks, not give up picks to move up to get someone they don’t need to move up for.” The agent compared Simpson to Matt Corral, Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder coming out of college, all quarterback prospects who ascended during the draft process but have so far failed to make it happen in the NFL. “The chatter is all media, not teams,” the NFL agent said about Simpson’s late rise up the draft board. “It wasn’t shocking when Will Levis didn’t go in the first round, or Malik Willis being drafted in the third round. They were better prospects than Simpson. He is more similar to Corral and Sam Howell.”