NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament Breakdown: Top Matchups, Upsets, Predictions

Let the madness begin, as they say. Reigning national champion UConn earned the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament, while UCLA, Texas and South Carolina rounded out the remaining top spots. Will there be upsets or will there be chalk? Can the Huskies defend their title, or can a team like UCLA win its first-ever championship? What about Vanderbilt? With arguably the nation’s best player in Mikayla Blakes, can the Commodores cause some chaos and make a deep run in a tough region? Or, will South Carolina find a way to clinch its third title in five years? Here’s a breakdown of the field: [WOMEN’S TOURNAMENT: 1 Thing To Know About Every Team] 1. Of the No. 1 seeds, which team has the clearest path to the Final Four? Texas. The Longhorns beat South Carolina two out of three times this season, including in the SEC championship game. Those wins, plus the overall strength of their résumé, are why Texas earned the third No. 1 seed while South Carolina got the fourth. This detail is important because now the Longhorns will play in the Fort Worth regional, which is only 190 miles north of Austin, instead of traveling to Sacramento. Last year, the Longhorns lost to the Gamecocks in the Final Four. This year, they have a favorable draw to get there again. The toughest potential hurdles they could face on the way would be No. 2 seed Michigan or No. 3 seed Louisville in the Elite Eight. But Texas has more talent and depth than both of those teams, and is playing its best basketball of the year right now, so they should have no problem getting to Phoenix. 2. What is the most intriguing first-round matchup in this year’s tournament and why? No. 7 NC State vs. No. 10 Tennessee. Everybody loves a rematch, and these teams started the season playing each other. Both programs were ranked in the top 10 at the time and the Wolfpack won a close game, 80-77. NC State forward Khamil Pierre, who transferred from Vanderbilt, led all scorers with 21 points, while teammates Tilda Trygger had 19 and Zamareya Jones had 18. After losing that season opener, the Volunteers went on to win 14 of their next 16 games. But then things fell apart midseason and Tennessee struggled, going 2-10 down the stretch, including losing seven in a row to finish the season. NC State has fared slightly better, but was still uneven to end the year, losing to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal. Now it’s March, and it will be interesting to see which team has evolved more since that early November meeting. 3. Who are three under-the-radar names that everyone should know about heading into March Madness? Audi Crooks, C, Iowa State: Crooks is Iowa State’s 6-foot-3 center and the nation’s second-leading scorer. She is averaging 25.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, while shooting 64.7% from the field. If Crooks can get into a rhythm early, the Cyclones could go far in this tournament. Iowa State is a No. 8 seed and opens tournament play vs. No. 9 Syracuse. Mikayla Blakes, G, Vanderbilt: By some accounts, Blakes is the best player in the country. The sophomore guard leads the nation in scoring, averaging 27 points per game, and is undoubtedly Vanderbilt’s most valuable player. She will have some good battles in this tourney as the Commodores could potentially face both Hannah Hidalgo and Notre Dame, and Sarah Strong and UConn. Vanderbilt is a No. 2 seed and kicks things off against No. 15 High Point. Aaliyah Chavez, G, Oklahoma: Pay attention to this freshman. She has had a stellar rookie season in Norman, which included leading Oklahoma to a stunning overtime win against South Carolina in January. Chavez scored 15 of her 26 points in OT as then-No. 16 Oklahoma beat then-No. 2 South Carolina, 94-82. She has a chance to make an impression in her first NCAA Tournament, which could include a rematch with the Gamecocks in the Sweet 16. No. 4 seed Oklahoma will play No. 13 Idaho in the first round. 4. What is the most likely first-round upset featuring a 12-seed or higher? No. 12 seed James Madison over No. 5 seed Kentucky. This one is fun because Kentucky head coach Kenny Brooks played at James Madison and started his career coaching both the men’s and women’s programs at his alma mater. Now, they’ll face off in the first round of this year’s NCAA tournament. The Dukes, who won the Sun Belt Conference Tournament, are led by redshirt senior guard Peyton McDaniel (18.9 ppg) and senior forward Ashanti Barnes (9.1 rpg). They both recorded double-doubles in the conference title game win over Troy. JMU went 26-6, and won their last 12 games, while Kentucky hasn’t been so lucky. The Wildcats have lost eight of their last 14 games, so the Dukes could be catching Brooks and Co. at the right time. 5. Who are your Final Four picks and who wins it all? I’m going chalk: UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina to the Final Four. It won’t be easy, but these are the four best teams in the country. The Bruins, however, might be the deepest and strongest team. With Lauren Betts, Kiki Rice, Gabriela Jaquez and Gianna Kneepkens, this team is going to be a tough out. A potential matchup in the national championship game against Sarah Strong, Azzi Fudd and UConn could legitimately be the best game of the year. And the Bruins will come out on top.