Men’s College Basketball Top 10, Bubble Team NET Rankings: Florida Joins Top 5

The top 25 rankings are important for understanding just who is killing it in college basketball, but we can go deeper — all the way to the bubble and beyond. The NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, is a rankings system used in Division I basketball to help figure out which teams are going to participate in March Madness. As the NCAA puts it, NET “takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses,” the latter of which is determined by placing every Division I matchup into different quadrants, ranked 1 through 4, with 1 being the strongest teams and 4 the weakest — Quads aren’t just determined by record, but also whether a game was played at home, on the road or at a neutral site. Using NET, we can get a sense of which teams are the best at a given moment, as well as which ones are on the bubble for selection in March. While updated daily by the NCAA, we’ll track changes weekly. With that, here are the top 10 men’s college basketball teams through March 2, according to NET. The Top 10 10. Iowa State (previous: 8) The week started well with a win over Utah, but Iowa State then fell to ranked competition in Texas Tech and Arizona: the first put the Red Raiders into the top 10 in the poll even without JT Toppin around, and the latter gave the Wildcats the outright Big 12 regular-season title. The Cyclones close out their season against Arizona State with a chance at a double-bye for the conference tournament. Given the Big 12 this year, every game you don’t have to play is a blessing. 9. Purdue (previous: 6) A loss to Michigan State was unfortunate but not a surprise, unlike being defeated by Ohio State — a team desperately trying to get back into the bubble — on Sunday. The Boilermakers still have Northwestern and Wisconsin on the schedule, which should be good news for Purdue’s chances at sneaking into the top four and a bye straight to the Big Ten conference quarterfinals, but guessing at which version of Purdue will show up to those games is the difficult part. 8. UConn (previous: 10) Just how good is UConn this year? No, really. It’s difficult to tell. The Huskies seem to play great against genuinely talented squads — they crushed St. John’s 72-40 last week, for instance — but then play down to their competition the rest of the time. Beating Seton Hall, which might not even be a tourney team, 71-67 immediately after the St. John’s blowout is basically UConn’s season in a week-sized nutshell. As is having to come back to beat the Pirates in the first place. The good news for the Huskies is that everyone it faces in March should be a quality team — if they play down to the competition there, well, that might just work out. 7. Houston (previous: 9) The Cougars played just one game last week, a 102-62 defeat of Colorado. That is great and all, but the real boon for Houston was Iowa State and Purdue slipping. Next up for the Cougars are games against Baylor and then Oklahoma State, then it’s Big 12 tournament time. 6. Gonzaga (previous: 5) Gonzaga fell back a single spot despite losing for two reasons: you can guess one of them easily enough, since Iowa State and Purdue have already been mentioned multiple times, but the second is that Saint Mary’s is legit. The Gaels took down Gonzaga, 70-59, and sure it was an upset. But Saint Mary’s is now ranked and is 21st in NET as well as 23rd in Wins Above Bubble, so defeat didn’t sting the Bulldogs as much as it would have if, say, they dropped another to the likes of Portland instead. [Men’s College Basketball Rankings: The Gaels Join The Rankings] 5. Illinois (previous: 4) There is only so much shame to be found in losing to Michigan, but Illinois still was pushed back in NET thanks to the continued ascent of the next team that you are going to read about. 4. Florida (previous: 7) What an up and down season for the Gators, but it’s only been heading in one direction of late. The defending champions looked like a team with too-high expectations early after losing multiple seniors between last season and this one, but the new-look roster eventually gelled, and has been tearing through the SEC. Last week featured a win over Texas and a blowout of a ranked Arkansas team. 3. Arizona (previous: 3) Arizona is your Big 12 regular-season champion, and gets the kind of seeding and byes needed to survive what has been a chaotic conference once it reaches tournament form. Though, there really is no defense against what the Big 12 has been about this year: every team vacillates between unbeatable and vulnerable depending on the day, which is how Arizona can lose to Kansas sans Darryn Peterson and then convincingly take out the same Jayhawks with a performing Peterson in the lineup weeks later. 2. Michigan (previous: 1) Michigan didn’t do anything wrong here — it defeated both Minnesota and a ranked Illinois squad last week. However, the margins between the Wolverines and Duke in NET were already razor-thin, and the Blue Devils are coming off a week with more wins, and bigger ones. 1. Duke (previous: 2) Those wins? A 100-56 dismantling of Notre Dame, beating ranked Virginia 77-51 and then making NC State’s ACC tournament seeding journey that much more treacherous with a 29-point win. Maybe next week it will be Michigan on top again, but that might depend on if the Blue Devils can get their revenge against ranked UNC in their final regular-season game. Risers and Fallers In the span of a week, some teams can see their spot in the rankings dramatically shift. Here are the five teams that rose the most in men’s college basketball in the last week… T2. Western Kentucky, 153 to 134: Western Kentucky has now scored at least 93 points in its last three games, with margins of victory of 21, 23 and 32 points. Pretty good. The Hilltoppers are now in third in Conference USA after winning six in a row, with two left to play and Kennesaw State a game back. T2. Western Carolina, 252 to 233: Western Carolina ended its regular season riding a six-game winning streak, with two of those in the past week against Mercer and Furman. Both upsets, too, hence the jump in NET. T2. Saint Joseph’s, 152 to 133: The Hawks took down George Mason and Rhode Island last week. The former was a clear upset, with George Mason a top-100 team. T2. Charleston Southern, 259 to 240: The Buccaneers played just once last week, but it was a win over Winthrop, which was 126th in NET and attempting to catch High Point at the top of the Big South standings. 1. Tennessee State, 215 to 189: The Tigers took down SEMO and Tennessee-Martin to conclude their regular season, and made it into the top 200 in the process. Thanks to the tiebreaker, Tennessee State won the top seed in the Ohio Valley conference for the tournament, granting it a double bye to the semifinals. …and the five that fell the furthest. T5. Southern University: 274 to 291: Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman both beat Southern U last week, dropping them to 9-7 in conference play. There is still a chance to climb to a higher seeding for the SWAC tournament, but the Jaguars have to win against Alabama State and then Alabama A&M for that to happen. [Get to Know a Mid-Major: Southwestern Athletic Conference] T5. Northern Arizona, 295 to 312: This continued a recent spiral for Northern Arizona, which ended its regular season losers of five in a row. This time around it was Eastern Washington and Montana State that did the deed, pushing the Lumberjacks to the bottom of the Big Sky. T3. Idaho State, 220 to 238: Weber State (194th in NET) and Sacramento State (267th) beat the Bengals this week to end their regular season on a down note. The loss to Weber State wasn’t unexpected by NET’s reckoning, but dropping a game to the Hornets by 18 points hurt. T3. CSUN, 166 to 184: Cal State Northridge lost to UC Irvine by a single point before UC Riverside beat it by 11. A strange combination, since CSUN was the underdog against UC Irvine but the very clear favorite against UC Riverside. 2. Austin Peay, 134 to 156: A close loss to Central Arkansas wasn’t ideal, given Austin Peay was rated ahead of it in NET, but things got worse when bottom-100 Bellarmine dropped 111 points on the Governors. 1. Lamar, 229 to 252: Lamar finished February with one win all month. It ranked 200th in NET after that Feb. 2 victory against SLU, and then lost its final eight games, including last week’s to Incarnate Word and Houston Christian. On the Bubble Of the 68 March Madness teams in the tournament, 31 of them are conference champions who receive automatic entry into the tournament. The other 37 spots are at-large bids. With that in mind, we will look at the teams ranked between 64-to-73 in NET each week, as those are the ones who are the most on the bubble for the tourney. 73. Arizona State (previous: 68): Arizona State is slipping right out of any chance at the bubble, but if it can pick up a win against either No. 14 Kansas or No. 6 Iowa State, its NET and Wins Above Bubble are both going to get a boost. 72. Northwestern (previous: 79): Northwestern is making a late push toward the bubble, with wins over Indiana and Oregon. It’s still not where it needs to be, however, but defeating No. 15 Purdue, Minnesota and then putting on a good showing in the Big Ten tournament might get the Wildcats close. 71. Dayton (previous: 83): Dayton received some votes in this week’s poll, but the Atlantic 10 team is far from being that kind of power. Still, beating now-No. 25 Saint Louis was huge, and if that signaled the start of something, at the least, the A-10’s automatic bid could be in reach. 70. LSU (previous: 67): Oklahoma beat LSU by 16 points, which more than countered an overtime win against Ole Miss. LSU needs a strong finish to the regular season and an even better run through the SEC tourney to get the Selection Committee’s attention. 69. Wake Forest (previous: 65): Losing to Boston College (153rd in NET) stung, but downing Syracuse kept the slide from being worse than this. If the Demon Deacons can defeat No. 11 Virginia, then fellow bubble-territory team California, then maybe it can reverse its fortunes. 68. Minnesota (previous: 73): Keeping it close with Michigan helped, and beating UCLA was another push in the right direction. Still, the Golden Gophers have work to do, and other hopefuls Indiana and Northwestern are on the schedule. 67. Nevada (previous: 66): The Wolf Pack lost to UNLV in OT, and needs to beat Wyoming and Air Force before the Mountain West tournament for seeding purposes — Nevada is currently tied for fourth. 66. Yale (previous: 64): There is just one game left in the regular season for Yale to improve its standing, but the Ivy League’s top seed can also avoid any bubble concerns by winning the conference tournament. 65. Stanford (previous: 72): Stanford is not just 65th in NET, but also 61st in Wins Above Bubble with a -1.32 score. That’s maybe not tournament territory yet, but with games left against Notre Dame and NC State before the ACC tournament, there is a clear path here for the Cardinal to be deemed worthy of March. 64. USC (previous: 58): The Trojans are heading in the other direction, however. They are still on the bubble, but that grasp is getting more tenuous after five-straight losses. USC can redeem itself before the Big Ten tournament with wins against Washington and UCLA, but the Bruins also just beat the Trojans by 19, too.